Exeter Chiefs vs Saracens Prediction: Hosts can outlast a Sarries side short of numbers

Exeter Chiefs have endured a nightmare campaign but could claim their second Gallagher Premiership win of the season when they host a Saracens side bereft of several international stars on Saturday (17:30, TNT Sports 2). The Chiefs followed up their 59-17 home defeat to Bordeaux by losing 52-24 to Ulster to crash out of the Champions Cup but won their last league game at Sandy Park, beating Gloucester 22-15.

Sarries blew their hopes of a home tie in the round of 16 of the Champions Cup by losing 32-24 at home to Castres after going down 17-12 at Munster the previous week. The visitors began round 11 third in the Premiership table but could come unstuck at Sandy Park, where they lost 65-10 last season. Read my Exeter Chiefs vs Saracens prediction below, alongside team news and match odds.

Team News

Exeter are without England's Henry Slade, but Wales lock Dafydd Jenkins is available to feature.

Scrum-half Stu Townsend makes his 100th appearance for the club and partners fly-half Will Haydon-Wood in a much-changed side.

Rugby Union Odds

Meanwhile, Saracens are without both first-choice hookers - Jamie George and Theo Dan - as well as Maro Itoje, Ben Earl, Tom Willis and Elliot Daly due to their England commitments.

However, Wales duo Nick Tompkins and Liam Willians are available, the latter starting at full-back, while Scotland call-ups Fergus Burke and Will Hurd join Tompkins on the bench.

Exeter Chiefs vs Saracens Odds

Exeter are 8/13 in the match betting, implying a win probability of 61.9%, with Saracens 7/5 to record a first away league victory since October and the draw at 18/1.

Exeter Chiefs -5 @ 21/20

Mark McCall admitted Saracens "got what they deserved" against Castres. It will have been a strange week at the club and having several players heading off on international duty has deprived the group of the chance to regroup and respond.

With his side already eliminated from the Champions Cup, Exeter coach Rob Baxter made 12 changes for the defeat at Ulster and those left out of the game at Ravenhill were likely given a brief to prepare themselves for this fixture.

December's win over Gloucester will have provided a much-needed boost but their inconsistency is a conundrum. However, after winning two of their first three on the road in the league, Sarries have lost their last two and lack star power without their key absentees.

Saracens' diminished squad numbers have seen them go from 8/11 to 7/5 in the match betting, while the Chiefs have been cut from 6/5 to 8/13.

That price for the Chiefs looks a bit skinny, but the names missing from the Sarries' teamsheet means they are worth opposing.

While more positive punters may opt for -8, Exeter -5 is still the right side of EVS and worth backing.

Rugby Union Betting Tips with Betfred Insights.