Bristol vs Exeter Chiefs Prediction: Bears to land derby spoils

Bristol Bears play host to Exeter Chiefs at Ashton Gate on Saturday afternoon (15:00 BST, TNT Sports Extra) in the Gallagher Premiership as round three of the season brings with it Derby Weekend 2025. The Bears have turned around their fortunes in this head-to-head, winning the last two meetings, having previously lost six on the spin from 2022 until last year.

Below are my Bristol vs Exeter Chiefs predictions, as well as all the essential team news and match odds for the encounter at Ashton Gate.

Team News

The Bears have confirmed that Joe Jenkins (hamstring) and Louis Rees-Zammit (foot) are facing spells on the sidelines, with the former set for surgery and not likely to reappear before the New Year.

Internationals Ellis Genge, Pedro Rubiolo, Benjamin Elizalde and Santiago Grondona are all back in Pat Lam's starting XV after their summer exploits with the British and Irish Lions and Argentina.

Kieran Marmion and Tom Jordan continue at half-back, while Jack Bates returns from injury to partner Benhard Janse van Rensburg in the midfield and Josh Carrington, Kalaveti Ravouvou and Elizalde make up the back three.

There is disappointment on the injury front for the Chiefs too this week, with loosehead prop Kwenzo Blose due to undergo surgery on an Achilles injury sustained in last weekend's win over Newcastle at Sandy Park. Wallabies stars Len Ikitau and Tom Hooper arrived this week, but this game comes too soon for them to feature.

Rob Baxter makes just one change to his starting pack with Jack Yeandle replacing Joseph Dweba in the hooker berth. Will Goodrick-Clarke lines up at loosehead with Josh Iosefa-Scott at tighthead.

Dafydd Jenkins pairs Andrea Zambonin in the engine room with a back row of Ethan Roots, Greg Fisilau and Ross Vintcent.

Stephen Varney and Harvey Skinner form the half-back partnership, while Ben Hammersley and Henry Slade are once more selected at inside and outside centre.

Bristol vs Exeter Chiefs Odds

Bristol Bears are favourites on home soil at 4/11 to make it three successive wins in this fixture, while the Chiefs can be backed at 9/4 to restore previous dominance and the draw trades at 20/1.

The handicap is set at seven points, with Bristol priced at 20/21 to overcome it, and the handicap tie can be backed at 20/1.

Bristol to win by 6-10 points inclusive @ 11/2

Exeter are sitting third in the table after a remarkable comeback away at Northampton Saints to draw 33-33 before dispatching Newcastle Falcons 38-15 at Sandy Park last weekend.

This will be a major test, however, with the Bears showing their teeth as they named a side that includes returning internationals Genge, Rubiolo, Elizalde and Grondona.

Head coach Lam has gone with a strong starting XV, and he'll expect a win against an Exeter side that failed to win on the road last season.

Bristol were 14-point winners when the sides met here in March, owing much to a 40-point first-half salvo.

The home side were dismissed 50-17 at Saracens last week and will have to bounce back. It should be tighter this time, given Exeter's good start, but the Bears can do enough to win with some daylight.

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