England vs Japan Prediction: Hosts can emphatically end losing run

England’s miserable Autumn series is almost at an end but Steve Borthwick’s men could end their 2024 international season on a high note when they host a Japan side that has been on the receiving end of some hidings in recent fixtures.

Read on for my England vs Japan prediction, alongside team news and match odds, ahead of Sunday's friendly, which starts at 16:10 and will be shown live on TNT Sports 1.

The Red Rose have lost each of their last five matches stretching back to the summer, failing to make home advantage count against each of the big guns of the southern hemisphere - New Zealand, Australia and South Africa.

Japan, meanwhile, head into this contest on the back of a 32-20 victory over Uruguay, but heavy losses to the All Blacks and France prior to this indicate that they could falter against one of the world’s elite nations.

Team News

England head coach Steve Borthwick has made just two alterations to the starting XV that were beaten 29-20 by world champions South Africa last time out, with the changes split evenly between the scrum and backs.

Harlequins flanker Chandler Cunningham-South drops to the bench for this contest and is replaced by Sale Sharks star Tom Curry, who returns from concussion to partner Sam Underhill.

The second change comes at full-back, where George Furbank will make only his 14th international appearance in place of Freddie Steward who misses the matchday squad altogether.

The two alterations in the backs see Malo Tuitama and Junta Hamano replaced by Tomoki Osada and Nicholas McCurran, who is expected to take over kicking duties from Takuro Matsunaga who returns to full-back.

Rugby Union Odds

Japan head coach - and former England boss - Eddie Jones has made five changes to the side that overcame Uruguay last Saturday.

Prop Shuhei Takeuchi, lock Sanaila Waqa and flanker Faulua Makisi enter the scrum in place of Keijiro Tamefusa, Amato Fakatava and the suspended Warner Dearns.

England vs Japan Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main England vs Japan page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Japan are heavy underdogs for victory at 18/1 (5.3% implied win probability), while the draw provides odds of 28/1.

England’s odds are so short that they cannot be solely backed to win. The Red Rose are 8/13 to win from a -31 handicap and 1/20 to win both halves.

England -34 Handicap @ 10/11

England may have failed to win any of their previous three internationals in November, but they will be confident in defeating a Japan outfit who they have already comprehensively beaten in 2024.

The Red Rose won 52-17 in Tokyo back in June and this manner of defeat is one that the Cherry Blossoms have been accustomed to against Tier 1 opponents recently, losing 64-19 and 52-12 to the All Blacks and France since October.

England have claimed victory in each of their last five meetings with Japan - two of which came on home soil - and they have won by at least 35 points on three of these occasions.

After winning by 35 points in Japan, the hosts should be more than capable of replicating this feat in front of their own fans.

Rugby Union Betting Tips from Betfred Insights