Chiefs vs Moana Pasifika Prediction: Chiefs look good for eight in a row against Moana

The Chiefs have won their previous seven meetings with Moana Pasifika, and there is little to suggest that victory number eight won't be racked up on Friday. After opening 2026 with narrow successes over the Blues and the Highlanders, Clayton McMillan's side lost 43-33 last week in a repeat of last year's final to the Crusaders. Moana began the new campaign with an impressive away victory over Fijian Drua, but have since suffered losses to the Hurricanes and the Western Force.

They can take heart from the fact that each of the Chiefs' games in 2026 have been won by the away team, but with the Waikato outfit winning last year's meeting at FMG Stadium 85-7, that run appears almost certain to be broken. Read on for our Chiefs vs Moana Pasifika predictions.

Chiefs vs Moana Pasifika Odds

The Chiefs are just 1/66 to win on Friday, with the draw 50/1 and Moana 12/1 for an upset in Hamilton.

Clayton McMillan's side won last year's home meeting 85-7 and another victory by over 50 points is 6/1.

Team News

Fly-half Damian McKenzie will make his first appearance of 2026 in a back-line that also includes a maiden Chiefs start for Wallaby centre Lalakai Foketi following last week's appearance from the bench.

McKenzie is one of 10 starters to have played international rugby, with another, Tupou Vaa'i, set to lead the second row.

After spending six years in Japan with Hino Red Dolphins, former Chief and New Zealand international scrum-half Augustine Pulu will make his debut for Moana in his first Super Rugby game since 2018.

Tevita Latu makes his first start at centre, while full-back Glen Vaihu is another addition.

Miracle Faiilagi will continue to captain the side from blindside flanker.

Chiefs -32 @ 5/4

The Chiefs have won the previous seven meetings, with each success coming by an average margin of 41.1 points.

They have also scored 50+ points in five of those seven head-to-heads, so the handicap looks the best play.

The 3-way mark is set at 28 points, with -28 on the home team priced at 10/11.

However, while they are yet to truly purr this year, it only feels like a matter of time and McKenzie's availability could spark them into action.

Interestingly, Moana have started games well, averaging 13 points in the first 15 minutes of their three matches, but continuing that run may only rile their opponents, who are backed to win with real ease.

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