Chiefs vs Blues Prediction: Home advantage to help Chiefs make it three in a row

There's a repeat of last year's Super Rugby Pacific final to look forward to on Saturday (08:05, live on Sky Sports Action), as the Chiefs and the Blues meet in this year's qualifying finals in Hamilton.

Read on for my Chiefs vs Blues predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

The Blues beat their Kiwi rivals 41-10 at Eden Park in last season's showpiece to claim their first title since 2003 but have struggled for consistency in 2025, including losing home and away to the Chiefs.

After finishing sixth in the regular season standings, a ninth defeat of the campaign wouldn't be a total disaster for the Blues, that is because the Chiefs' status as top seeds after finishing first means both sides will go through to next weekend's semi-finals regardless of Saturday's outcome.

However, with the All Black squad for the series with France set to be revealed on June 23, there are several subplots and it promises to be a humdinger in Hamilton.

Chiefs vs Blues Odds

The Chiefs are the 3/10 favourites, with the Blues 13/5 and the draw 22/1.

Saturday's hosts won 25-14 in Auckland in February's opening round, but only 32-31 at home in March and backing the Blues +7 could be worthwhile at 11/10.

Team News

The headline team news is that New Zealand's number 10 rivals Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett will face off at first five-eighth.

However, another All Black, Quinn Tupaea, has followed fellow centre Anton Lienert-Brown onto the injury list, so Gideon Wrampling and Daniel Rona will form a new-look midfield partnership for the Chiefs outside McKenzie.

Home coach Clayton McMillan has also sprung a surprise with Simon Parker picked at number eight ahead of Wallace Sititi.

Barrett runs a back-line featuring fellow All Blacks Finlay Christie, Mark Tele'a, Rieko Ioane and Caleb Clarke, who ran in a hat-trick in the 2024 final.

Meanwhile, a quality pack features Hoskins Sotutu, Dalton Papali'i and captain Patrick Tuipulotu.

Chiefs to win by 1-12 points @ 19/10

The Chiefs, champions in 2012 and 2013, have turned the tables on the Blues with their two wins in 2025. Before that, they won only two of the previous nine meetings and will still have revenge on their minds.

They have won all seven of this year's outings at FMG Stadium, taking their record to 22 wins in their last 24 home games.

Their average of 39.3 points scored per game also makes them the highest-scoring team in the competition but they face a Blues team possibly coming into form at the right time.

Vern Cotter's side have won three of their last four and restricted both the Drua and Waratahs to six points or fewer in that run.

In fact, their average of 23.6 points conceded per game is only bettered by the Chiefs' 22.8 ppg.

With the guarantee of a semi-final next weekend, regardless of Saturday's result, both teams could come to play, but given their defensive records, coupled with the Blues' recent improvement, this could prove a close battle, although one, with home advantage, that the Chiefs can edge.

Tupou Vaa'i anytime tryscorer @ 5/1

New Zealand's inability to get over the gainline in recent years has been an issue, while Ardie Savea aside, they have also lacked power in their forwards.

Chiefs' lock Tupou Vaa’i might be 25 but already has 36 caps. However, he only now appears to be getting the most from his 198cm, 118kg frame.

Vaa’i scored a try against the Blues in the Chiefs' one-point win in March and has been excellent in recent weeks, touching down four times in his team's last two matches.

Born in Auckland, he may also have extra motivation to shine against his hometown club, and he is a tempting price to power over again on Saturday.

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