Brumbies vs Crusaders Prediction: Penney’s troops to come out on top

The Crusaders will be hoping to maintain their winning form heading into the Super Rugby Pacific Finals Series when they head to the GIO Stadium to face the Brumbies in the last round of the regular season on Friday (10:35, Sky Sports Action).

Below are my Brumbies v Crusaders predictions, as well as all the essential team news and match odds for the showdown in Canberra.

Team News

The Brumbies have made three alterations from the side that beat the Reds on May 17, with the sole change in the backs seeing Noah Lolesio come in for Declan Meredith at fly-half.

In the forwards, Feao Fotuaika replaces Allan Alaalatoa in the front row and Lachlan Shaw drops out for Tuaina Taii Tualima, who starts at No.8, with Tom Hooper moving next to Nick Frost in the middle row.

Rugby Union Odds

The Crusaders have made six changes from the narrow victory over the Highlanders last time out, with Antonio Shalfoon replacing lock Jamie Hannah and Ethan Blackadder coming in for Cullen Grace at flanker.

In the backs, Noah Hotham is preferred to Mitchell Drummond at half-back, Macca Springer is replaced by Chay Fihaki on the wing, and Dallas McLeod and Levi Aumua form the centre partnership after being drafted in for David Havili and Braydon Ennor.

Brumbies vs Crusaders Odds

The Brumbies are 20/21, or a 51.2% chance, to pick up the win on home soil, with the draw priced at 18/1 and the Crusaders the marginal favourites at 10/11.

Crusaders -1 handicap @ 6/5

We already know which three teams will have home advantage for the quarter-finals of the Finals Series, as the Chiefs (first), Crusaders (second) and Brumbies (third) can't be overtaken by any of the sides from fourth down.

But which order the top three finish in is yet to be decided, as just three points separates the Brumbies from the Chiefs, and that leaves a lot to play for as the trio will all want to face statistically the weakest side in sixth.

It looks like a tall order for the Chiefs to be knocked off top spot, as they face the rock-bottom Highlanders in their last match, so it is really all about the battle for second and the opportunity to take on the fifth-placed team.

The Crusaders currently hold that position, and their head-to-head record against the Brumbies suggests they can lock up second spot, with Rob Penney's side winning 11 of the last 12 meetings.

The Brumbies did win the most recent clash in May 2024, running out 31-24 victors, but 11 successive defeats against the Crusaders before that makes it hard to side with them to follow that up with another triumph.

The Crusaders have won six of their last seven matches - the only defeat coming against the Chiefs - while they covered the -1 handicap in those 11 wins in a row over the Brumbies.

While the hosts have had time to recover after their bye week in round 15, that may still not be enough for them to get the job done, and the better play is to back the Crusaders at -1 on the handicap.

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