Cowboys vs Sea Eagles Prediction: Five-for-five streak to account for Foran’s first failure
It’s only a month since Todd Payten’s days at the North Queensland Cowboys seemed numbered, and just two weeks ago the Manly Sea Eagles were the NRL’s crisis club. But the two sides meet on Thursday in Townsville with a pair of winning runs on the line (19:50 local, 10:50 BST, Watch NRL).
The Cowboys’ 35-31 win over the Broncos was their fourth straight, while Kieran Foran has two from two as Manly coach. My Cowboys vs Sea Eagles predictions will forecast one of those streaks ending, and they follow below with the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.
Cowboys vs Sea Eagles Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publishing
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Payten is all set to go five-for-five with the Cowboys, according to Betfred’s traders. They have North Queensland at 4/7 for the win, implying a 63.6% probability of a home victory at the Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
Manly are 6/4, with the draw in 80 minutes 16/1.
The Sea Eagles are handed 4.5 points extra in the two-way handicap market, with their price shortening to 5/6 in return. The Cowboys are 10/11 to overcome the difference.
Team News
The Cowboys are without Murray Taulagi as the winger observes concussion protocols, but Braidon Burns returns from an ankle injury to take Taulagi’s shirt.
Soni Luke is in at hooker due to Reed Mahoney’s head injury. Viliami Vailea and Sam McIntyre join the six-player bench.
Manly’s huge boost comes in the shape of Siosiua Taukeiaho, who is back in the side for the first time since the Round 1 loss to the Raiders. He has recovered from a calf injury and takes a spot among the subs.
Other than that, Foran goes with the same group of players who appeared in the 28-18 win over the Dragons last time out. Paul Bryan is out, with Nathan Brown on the extended bench in his place.
Cowboys by 1-12 @ 9/4
There is just no way I would have had this down as a fourth-versus-ninth contest even a couple of weeks ago.
Over the last month, Payten’s Cowboys have followed four wins in 15 dating back to June 2025 with four on the bounce in a stunning turnaround in form.
Wins over the Storm and Broncos have been the standouts, with last week’s 35-31 victory at Suncorp (the first pro game in Australia to finish that way since 1932, Scorigami fans) being a lesson in resilience.
The Cowboys’ response to seeing a 24-6 lead overturned being to hit straight back at the Broncos and win it late thanks to Heilum Luki’s try.
While they come up against a Manly side transformed since Foran took the reins from the sacked Anthony Seibold, I think this Cowboys roll has some way to go yet.
The Sea Eagles’ huge victory over the Dolphins was one thing, but they were a little less convincing against the Dragons. And unless the Cowboys have a hangover from that big Queensland derby result, I see this going the way of the home side and a close one.
The 9/4 about the 1-12 margin for North Queensland is very appealing, with the odds implying a 30.8% probability.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Sea Eagles Under 21.5 Points @ 13/10
It might not have seemed it when they were watching the Broncos decimate their 18-point lead last week, but much of the Cowboys’ improved form of late can be put down to their improving defence.
They nilled the Dragons a couple of weeks ago, becoming only the second team this season to keep a clean sheet – following the Panthers against the Bronx in Round 1.
Even accounting for the 31 shipped at Suncorp, the Cowboys are averaging less than 18 points conceded per game over their last for. That compares to almost 26.5 over their previous 15 matches.
And while Manly chalked up 52 in Foran’s first game against the Dolphins, they haven’t found their attack clicking quite as they would hope in other matches this term.
So I’m willing to back the 13/10 about Manly falling short of the 22-point mark.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.
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