Broncos vs Cowboys Prediction: 9/4 Brisbane should extend win streak to four

The original NRL Queensland derby returns on Friday at Suncorp Stadium when the reigning-champion Brisnbane Broncos host the North Queensland Cowboys (20:00 local, 11:00 BST, Sky Sports Action).
Michael Maguire’s Broncos are back in form of late after a sluggish opening to the campaign, but the Cowboys come into this one after a 32-0 slaying of the Dragons. Read on for my Broncos vs Cowboys predictions, complete with full team news and Betfred’s latest odds.
Broncos vs Cowboys Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publishing
The hometown Broncos are narrow favourites with Betfred. Their 5/6 price for the 80-minute win imply a 54.5% probability of a home victory.
The Cowboys are 21/20 to extend their three-game winning streak, while it’s 16/1 for the scores to be tied at the end of regulation time.
Todd Payten’s side are handed just a 1.5-point edge in the two-way handicap market, with their odds narrowed to 10/11 in return. The Broncos remain 5/6 against the most minimal of edges.
Team News
The Bronx have been dealt a huge blow in the loss of Adam Reynolds with the adductor injury he suffered in last week’s win over the Titans.
With Ben Hunt also missing out due to a knee issue, Thomas Duffy starts at scrum-half against his former club and Blake Mozer steps in as a sub in Hunt’s place.
Reece Walsh’s exit with a Cat 1 concussion at the Cbus last week sees him sit out this game too, so Jesse Arthar starts at full-back.
Josiah Karapani returns following disciplinary issues which led to his exclusion from the Round 5 win.
Former Leigh Leopard Kai O’Donnell starts for the Cowboys in the second row, with Sam McIntyre missing out due to plantar fasciitis.
Braidon Burns’ nagging ankle problem means Zac Laybutt comes in as a second change to the line-up which saw off the Dragons with ease last week.
Broncos by 1-12 @ 9/4
Having lost to Hull KR, the Panthers and the Eels to begin their season, victories over the Storm, Dolphins and Titans have really corrected the Broncos’ course.
What we’ve seen in the last few weeks is much more what we have come to expect of Maguire’s players, even if the late comebacks which dragged them to the Grand Final success last year, and created an epic ending in the World Club Challenge, made for dramatic viewing.
They’re missing some key components in the likes of Walsh, Reynolds and – from the bench – Hunt this week, which has me looking at the 1-12 margin rather than three or more scores. Especially after watching Kotoni Staggs kick last week!
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Cowboys Under 21.5 Points @ 5/4
After the Broncos had conceded 96 points in their first three competitive fixtures of 2026, there wouldn’t have been too many people backing their defence to be up to much good.
But their three wins since them have come at the loss of just 38 points in total, with six off those coming against the Gold Coast on Easter Saturday with the game already won at 26-6 with three minutes left.
So I just don’t see the Cowboys getting close to 22 points, even considering their winning run of three matches at an average of 30 scored per game.
The dominant team so often dictate the style of fixture, and the Broncos are the more stacked outfit in this one. As such, their recent defensive steeliness out to have the major say.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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