US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s three best bets from across the pond on Saturday

Saturday is here, so that can only mean one thing. Our resident Stateside racing expert, Paul Quigley, is here to kick off your weekend with his expertise regarding the day's action across the pond.

Check out his latest US Horse Racing Tips, which come from Gulfstream Park and Thistledown.

Horse Racing Odds

21:54 Gulfstream Park (Race 10) – The Azalea Stakes – Late Night Text (3) @ SP

Trainer Saffie Joseph is often the trainer to beat in stakes here in the summer. He is double handed here. Both his runners are last time out maiden winners. His Sorokin (4) graduated second time out at Tampa.

She did it nicely. There may be improvement to come from her. Her stablemate Late Night Text (3) is likely to take more money. She left her form behind running first time for the trainer in April.

Under today’s rider Micah Husbands, she broke her maiden in a very decent time. The placed horses franked the form by running first and second next time. Like all of these fillies, she has to race without lasix in this stake. That can often mean a below par effort.        

The Saffie Joseph pair are likely to take plenty of money. There are two fillies in particular who may be worth considering at prices. Winplaceandshow (1) is on a hat-trick after back to back allowance condition victories.

Interestingly, she broke her maiden racing without lasix. Permian Basin (6) is likely to be bigger odds. She only scraped home at Tampa last month but the placed horses both improved their speed figures next time. Value players could do a lot worse than side with her and Winplaceandshow (1).   

Flowko (2) thrashed a field of state breds here over six and a half furlongs last month. She may face competition for the lead and has to last a little bit further. Last time out maiden winner Wander Woman (7) has not yet ran fast enough to contend. She has a look of work in progress and likely has better performances in front of her.   

22:35 Thistledown (Race 11) – The Lady Jacqueline Stakes – Standoutsensation (1) @ SP

This is the sort of field Standoutsensation (1) can be very competitive in. She rattled up a four timer including a stakes win before running a close up second in a Grade 3 in Texas.

The five year old was hung wide when third in a stake at Oaklawn in April. She’s been freshened up and draws well to get a forward trip from the rail. The five old may be a backable price with Nerazurri (2) also taking plenty of money.

She can be forgiven her last run when overmatched in a Grade 1 at Churchill last month. She’s a two-time stakes winner who beat Peignoir (6) at Oaklawn in February. The booking of Flavien Prat is a positive but it may be she goes off a tad shorter than she should do.        

Peignoir (6) missed by a nose in this race last year. She has the advantage of having a run on this track over the favourites. Her last run was disappointing but prior to that she ran third in a deeper race than this one.

Like her, Take Charge Omaha (3) has to be reckoned with. She has been running in much deeper waters since winning a conditions event at Keeneland in April. Low Country Magic (4) has more tactical speed than her. She comes off a good second in a stake over today’s distance at Laurel.   

Tirupati (8) is the wild card in here. She is a Grade 3 winner. That and all her best form has come since she switched to the turf. Her dam was very effective on this surface. She simply  may be a much better mare since she last tried the dirt.

23:20 Thistledown (Race 12) – The Ohio Derby (Grade 3) – Chip Honcho (3) @ SP

This is a wide open renewal. With a stakes packed card and a big purse for this race, some of the top jockeys Stateside have shipped into Cleveland Ohio. One of them is Flavien Prat. He rides The Bob Baffert trained Desert Gate (8).

His mount has won back to back stakes by open lengths. In the latest, he was six lengths too good for Chad Allan (1) at Lone Star Park. Based on his form, he’s the horse to beat. He may be a tad overbet going for top connections considering this is by no means a gimme for him.     

Ocelli (5) has that best maiden in training tag. He was a staying on third in The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby with a couple of these well behind him. The winner Golden Tempo franked the form taking The Grade 1 Belmont Stakes next time.

A fortnight after Churchill, Ocelli (5) ran below that form when fourth in The Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. The prospect of more speed to chase down will suit. A place above him at Laurel was Chip Honcho (3). He was bouncing back to form and showed a new dimension to his name being able to stalk the pace and run big. He looks well worth considering under Jose Ortiz.    

It’s hard to knock connections of Albus (10) for taking a shot in The Kentucky Derby. He is better judged on his Grade 2 Wood Memorial win at Aqueduct prior to that. There he had Ocelli (5) back in third with subsequent graded stakes winners behind him. He was aided by a fast race flow that day but history could repeat itself here. He’s well worth considering for the forecast at least.     

Bull by the Horns (7) was a stakes winner on Tapeta in March. He ran at last as well in The Preakness stakes but did finish behind a couple of these. He’s another who could be a late player. Trendsetter (4) has more tactical speed and can make his own racing luck. He comes off back to back fine tries in Grade 3’s, winning at Keeneland in April.