US Horse Racing Tips: All eyes on Churchill Downs on Saturday

Our Stateside guru Paul Quigley is back on Saturday to provide his best bets from the action taking place across the pond. He has picked out four to follow at Churchill Downs for his latest picks.

Check out his US Horse Racing tips below.

20:23 Churchill Downs - Stop The Car (Each Way) @ 18/1

Two unbeaten colts are likely to dominate the market. Englishman (1) won by seven lengths on debut here last September. It was by the same margin he scored in his comeback at The Fair Grounds in March. The final times of both races were fast. He is bred to handle more ground but may have to be used early from his rail draw. Like him, Crude Velocity (6) runs in his first stakes event. The pair he beat by a wide margin at Santa Anita last time are decent standard setters. He seems to draw better than Englishman (1).

The two favourites are by far the most likely winners. The pair will likely be priced up accordingly. Maybe this is a spot to go in another direction, possibly each way. Crown the Buckeye (7) and Creole Chrome (8) are big fish on their own states. The pair seem capable of winning in open company. Crown the Buckeye (7) ran really well when second in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct in February. Creole Chrome (8) seemed to find the distance too far when running into to Derby contender Further Ado in a Grade 1 at Keeneland last month.

Trouble Calling (2) followed up a maiden breaker by winning a stake at Keeneland. He may improve for more ground. Secured Freedom (4) may do better with a slight cut back. He has form with the best three-year-olds in California. Stop the Car (5) will be an even bigger price. He won his first two starts including a conditions event over course and distance. He’s tried graded stakes over further twice since. Those defeats have darkened his form. He may outrun his odds.

One More Freud (11) won both his starts as a juvenile including a stake at Monmouth in August. This is a tough spot to make your comeback in but he may not be anywhere near his ceiling yet.

21:06 Churchill Downs - Stark Contrast @ 7/2

This is a competitive renewal with Stark Contrast (4) getting the vote. He had fine form as a two-year-old culminating in a close up second to Gstaad in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. His two starts this term confirm he’s trained on. After a comeback victory at Santa Anita, he ran second to Kentucky Derby hopeful Fulleffort in a Grade 3 on The Tapeta at Turfway. His connections resisted the temptation to run in The Derby the to point him for this race back on his preferred surface.

Remember Mamba (12), Honey Dutch (9), Vasy (10) and Street Beast (1) filled the first four places in a Grade 3 at Keeneland last month. Remember Mamba (12) has to be reckoned with here. He’s only lightly-raced and improving at a rate of knots. He and Vasy (10) who was also wide last time may be the pair to take out of that race. Vasy (10) did beat Honey Dutch (9) and Thousandsticks (13) in a stake at Gulfstream in February. Interestingly, Thousandsticks (13) was favourite and ran below his stakes winning best of January.

Alpyland (7) lost by a length to Thousandsticks (13) in January. He gave that form a boost when winning a stake at Tampa in March. He’s been kept fresh for this and is another who makes the shortlist. Getting back on turf, Black Hornet (6) is a possibility. He is two for two on the grass, winning a stake at The Fair Grounds in February. Greenwich Village (8) is another who has ran his best race since switching to the turf. He has won back to back stakes at Santa Anita. There is a chance he is better than his narrow margin of victory in those races suggests.

The wild card in here is Blackout Time (5). He is off The Triple Crown trail after two modest runs (on dirt) at Oaklawn. He has a turf pedigree whose dam was a Grade 3 winner in limited tries on the surface Stateside. At a big price, he may be worth a saver.

21:50 Churchill Downs - Imagination (Each Way) @ 5/1

Last year’s renewal was the most productive stakes race of 2025 with multiple Grade 1 winners coming out of it. On paper, this is another very strong event. So much so that runner up last year Banishing (10) will be a big price. It is not like he’s lost his form, winning a Group 2 on The Dubai World Cup undercard in March. It is just this race is stacked with quality sprinter/milers like Knightsbridge (6). He has rattled up a hat-trick in Grade 3’s in Florida. In the latest, he won by 11 lengths in a super quick time. Based on that win, he’s a Grade 1 winner waiting to happen. He’s the horse to beat at a short price.

Trainer Bob Baffert is double-handed. His Cornucopian (2) is a lightly raced four year old with a big reputation. He may be able to improve off his Grade 3 victory at Santa Anita. His stablemate Imagination (7) has looked much improved since cutting back in distance. He ran second in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint and took a Group 2 in Saudi Arabia in February. The prospect of speed to chase down will suit him. He has decent place prospects. If Knightsbridge (6) isn’t on his game, maybe better.

Disruptor (5) and Disco Time (1) are other four-year-olds with few miles on the clock. They ran one-two in a swiftly run stake at Tampa in March. The winner ran a career best. There may be a nice trip coming for him from just off the speed. Disco Time (1) was bouncing back to form after a heavy loss at Gulfstream. In terms of speed figures, only Knightsbridge (6) has ran faster than him. He may be a price as Flavien Pratt seemed to have the choice between him and Imagination (7) and has chosen the latter.

Key to the outcome here is whether Point Dume (11) softens up Knightsbridge (6) in a speed duel. He is a six year old in the form of his life. At Aqueduct last month, he made it a hat-trick of wins in a Grade 2. He may outrun his odds if he makes the lead on his own. In contrast, Hall of Fame (4) and Crazy Mason (9) need help up front. The last named has come from far back to run big in graded stakes in the past.

T O Elvis (8) has won his last four races in Japan. The last a Grade 3 by five lengths in very fast time. He’s is hard to evaluate. His trainer did go close in The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile with a rare runner Stateside.

22:39 Churchill Downs - Test Score @ 3/1

There is a lack of speed in this race. That does make Corruption (1) an interesting proposition. He is cutting back three furlongs after a narrow loss in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream. The rail drawn runner may have the pace to be on or close to the lead. Rhetorical (6) shouldn’t be far off the early fractions. The New York-bred had a golden year in 2025 winning four times. His last victory was The Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland. He then ran a fine fourth in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile. His comeback in The Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland was a decent one.

Rhetorical (6) has to prove his stamina over nine furlongs. Not so Test Score (9) who is three from four over the distance. He won The Grade 1 Belmont Derby last summer either side of some fine efforts against fellow three year olds. In January, he had Astronomer (8) and Gold Phoenix (7) behind him when winning The Grade 1 Pegasus Turf at Gulfstream. He is very consistent and is likely to give a good account of himself.

Trainer Chad Brown is double-handed. His Program Trading (4) ran Rhetorical (6) close at Keeneland in October. He has been costly failures in his last two starts. Blinkers go on now but Flavien Pratt gets off him to ride his stablemate Asbury Park (3). He’s lightly-raced, rounding out his three-year-old season with a Grade 2 success at Aqueduct. The likely race flow here may not be ideal for his closing style. He has been working well for his comeback.

The X Factor here is Make Me King (10). He ran above himself when fourth to Ombudsman in a Grade 1 on Dubai World Cup night. The six year old has not looked a top-notcher in The Middle East or Europe. Based on his ratings, he is very capable of winning a race of this nature Stateside.

Astronomer (8) and Gold Phoenix (7) have something to find with Test Score (9). The first named is hard to win with to say the least. He may be suited the pace dynamics here. Gold Phoenix (7) comes here off a Grade 3 win at Santa Anita.

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