US Horse Racing Tips: Two to follow at Churchill Downs on Friday

Our Stateside guru Paul Quigley is back on Friday to provide his best bets from the action taking place across the pond. He has picked out two to follow at Churchill Downs for his latest picks.

Check out his US Horse Racing tips below.

21:30 Churchill Downs (Race 8) – The Eight Belles (Grade 2) – Goodall (8) @ SP

The standard setter is On Time Girl (9). She won a pair of deep stakes by three lengths either side of a break in December. Brad Cox’s filly was an odds on failure in a Grade 2 at Gulfstream in February. Maybe she didn’t run her race. She’s now been freshened up and cut back to maybe a more suitable distance. In addition, she is returning to a track she excelled at. She may rebound but meets some likely improving fillies.    

Goodall (8) broke her maiden second time of asking. She left form behind next time in a stake at Oaklawn. It was a no doubt four length victory over River Wind (3). She pressed a fast pace and won in a fast time. Trainer Steve Asmussen has jocked off his own son to put Flavien Prat on. She draws outside the other speed so is likely to get a no excuse trip.

French Friction (2) won her first two career starts including a five length stakes score at Oaklawn. On the back of that, she was fancied for The Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland. She set the pace and faded, seeming to finding the extended mile too far. Now cut back to seven furlongs, she has to enter calculations.

The luckless Luv Your Neighbor (7) is a possible price chance. She has been placed in her five straight starts, all but one stakes events. Each time she has come with a dangerous-looking run only to find little late on. Maybe her finishing effort will be stronger cutting back to one turn. Likewise Paradise (4). She won back to back races over that configuration before a running a non staying third in a Grade 3 over nine furlongs.     

Sippin Pretty (6) has ran big in all her three career starts. She gets a class test after slamming Solemn Vow (5) in a conditions event at Keeneland.

01:40 Churchill Downs (Race 13) – The Longines Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) – Prom Queen (10) @ SP

Like The Kentucky Derby, The Kentucky Oaks is wide a open race. The lukewarm favourite is Todd Pletcher’s Zany (2). She maintained her unbeaten record when beating a next time out Grade 3 winner in a stake at Tampa on her three year old debut.

Although she lost to Percy's Bar (11) in Keeneland’s Grade 1 Ashland last time, the pace dynamics and short straight played against her. She has a longer distance from the turn for Irad Ortiz to get her organized. At about 3/1 she makes limited appeal but she’s worth a saver if you go in a different direction.     

It can be argued The Oaklawn route has produced the strongest prep races for this. Breeders’ Cup runner up Explora (1) beat Counting Stars (4) in a Grade 3 there in early March. The runner up franked the form when five lengths too good for Search Party (3) in a Grade 2 in Arkansas next time.

There is other speed in here but Flavien Prat may have her loose on the lead. She is very dangerous. Having speed and being trained by Bob Baffert, it may be a good idea to take a price on her early. She is likely to backed into a single figures.     

Zany (2) is likely to go off favourite. The price on Explora (1) may have gone before many of you have considered having a bet. That may mean there is more juice in the odds of Always a Runner (9) and Prom Queen (10) come post time.

Always a Runner (9) improved massively second time out to run down Pashmina (13) in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct. Of all the fillies in here, she may have the most improvement in her. If her inexperience doesn’t cost her, she has a good chance of outfinishing this field. Prom Queen (10) has only had one more race than her. She has taken massive steps in all her three races.

There was a lot to like in the way she put away My Miss Mo (6) in The Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks in late March. 

Meaning (5) shaped well in only her second career start when just behind Explora (1) and Percy's Bar (11) in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She has been perfect in both her starts since.

Last month, she beat stablemate Brooklyn Blonde (14) by two lengths in The Santa Anita Oaks. She can’t be discounted. Neither can Bella Ballerina (12). She was the ante post favourite for this race on the back of graded stakes victories either side of New Year. She lost her unbeaten record at The Fair Grounds in March. Maybe with blinkers off, she may be stronger late on.   

Dazzling Dame (7) has ran a trio of fine races from the front. She is unlikely to get it easy on the lead if her jockey tries to ride her the same way.

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