Kentucky Derby 2026 Picks: Paul picks out his fancy for Saturday’s Run for the Roses

It is the biggest race in the States and we'll finally find out who will follow in the footsteps of such greats as American Pharoah, Justify, Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat. Will the winner start the long run to the Treble Crown?

Our US Racing tipster Paul Quigley previews the action for the 11:57PM at Churchill Downs and gives his top selection and predicts who will win the Kentucky Derby...

Kentucky Derby 2026 Odds

In this century, there have been very logical winners in this race like Sovereignty last year. In the renewals prior to that, there have been massive upsets including Mystic Dan and Rich Strike. In terms of form standouts and odds, there is no Sovereignty in this line-up. It is a wide open event. Betfred are paying four places so it’s not a bad race to have an each-way play.

Renegade (1) was made favourite after a four-length victory over Silent Tactic (13) in The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Stamina is his forte. He runs as if he will relish the step up to a mile and quarter. The only possible knock on his chances is Irad Ortiz having to find clear running passing maybe a dozen horses in the second half of the race.

All of trainer Brad Cox’s three runners won graded stakes preps for this race last time. His Commandment (6) made it four successive victories since his debut when taking The Grade 1 Florida Derby.

It was only narrowly from The Puma (9) and Chief Wallabee (12). That Gulfstream race looked the deepest of the trials and he did well to get there sat off a slow pace. For different reasons, Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat who have won on him ride other runners. He still looks a solid option. His old rivals The Puma (9) and Chief Wallabee (12) only made their career debuts in the same maiden in January. Both are improving types who will rightly have their supporters.

Brad Cox’s Further Ado (18) is one of the toughest reads in this race. His two standout performances including a Grade 1 romp last month have come at Keeneland. He did win a Grade 2 at Churchill in November so has form at the track. If he repeats his last run, he’s likely to go very close. His stablemate Fulleffort (20) out-finished a Grade 3 field on The Tapeta at Turfway in March. He’s never raced on dirt but his siblings ran fine on it.

Flavien Prat gets off Commandment (6) to renew his association with Emerging Market (15). That colt made it two-from-two in his career when winning The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He was game in victory to get the nod over the much improved Pavlovian (16) with Golden Tempo (19) a staying on third. His trainer rarely runs such an inexperienced horse in this race. That may be a big hint of another step forward.

Trainer Bob Baffert only has two big priced runners in here. His Litmus Test (4) will be an early factor. Potente (14) has a bigger chance of posting the upset. That said, he will have to reverse the form with So Happy (8) from The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Intrepido (3) was a below par fourth. That race came back as fast as all of the best preps races with the exception of the one Further Ado (18) won.

Incredibolt (11) won the same local graded stake as a juvenile as last year’s winner Sovereignty. He bounced back to form when a four length winner of a stake at Colonial Downs. He needs to improve but is going in the right direction. So too is his stablemate Albus (2). He was a narrow winner of Aqueduct’s Grade 2 Wood Memorial from Right to Party (5) and Ocelli (22).

There are a trio of Middle East and Far East qualifiers in this line up. Wonder Dean (10) outstayed Six Speed (17) to win The Group 2 UAE Derby. Fellow Japanese trained Danon Bourbon (7) has a big reputation. He’s perfect in three career starts. The performances of Forever Young Stateside over the last couple of years are a reminder that these horses have to be respected.