US Horse Racing Tips: Paul picks out his three to follow on Thursday

Paul Quigley, our stateside aficionado, is back on Thursday to provide his three best bets from across the pond. He likes the look of runners at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds.

You can check out his latest US Racing Tips below.

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

20:45 Churchill Downs (Race 10) – The Fall City (Grade 3) – Royal Spa (7) @ SP

A key race to the outcome here is a Grade 2 run over an extended mile here in September. Royal Spa (7) went wire to wire, beating Alpine Princess (4) just over a length with Regaled (10) back in third. The winner may be able to set her own pace again although there is other speed in here. The last time she ran over nine furlongs, she was second best to an in top form Thorpedo Anna. There may be little between her and old rival Alpine Princess (4). So far, she has come up just short in graded stakes. She has come so close too many times not to think her turn is near. 

Two horses came back to win next time out of The Grade 2 that Royal Spa (7) won. One of them was the third Regaled (10). The late runner was a wide margin victor of a Grade 3 at Delaware. She arguably bettered that when a closing third in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. On paper, that was a big effort. She did rather clunk up into a place as those that chased the winner fell away. That doesn’t mean she can’t win this. That said, there may be a different pace dynamic here.     

Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner up Raging Sea (2) made a fine return, winning a Grade 1 here in May. Not only did she not go on from that, she has regressed in a trio of starts since. She does get class relief and has been freshened up. The fact that Chad Brown has kept her in training is a hint she may be able to run big here. Quietside (5) will be a bigger price. Her comeback over seven furlongs has a look of a prep. She was an improving three year in the spring, winning back to back graded stakes at Oaklawn.   

Standoutsensation (8) has rattled up a hat-trick since losing a close one to Chilled (1). This is a step up in class after winning a stake at Aqueduct. She is a progressive four year old who best races may still be ahead of her.

21:14 Churchill Downs (Race 11) – The Cardinal Stakes – Pin Up Betty (8) @ SP

An oversubscribed field and a murky pace projector. On paper, there seems to be a lack of speed in here. That makes Stylish Sue (5) an interesting proposition. She wired a field on her belated four year debut here earlier this month. If she builds on that she is dangerous, especially if on the lead on her own. Pin Up Betty (8) and the rest may have it to do to run her down. That filly outran her odds when beaten less than a length in The Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland last month. Looking at her record, the step up to nine furlongs will suit. The last time she ran over the distance, she beat Duvet Day (1) to win a stake here in June.

The selection may be a clear-cut favourite. If she is on the skinny side, Stylish Sue (5) and a few others in here are worth considering. Vive Veuve (9) didn’t seem to get the mile and a half distance last time. She is better over shorter, winning back to back races here in the summer. Proctor Street (11) finished second to her in June. The last named has shown improved form since. At Keeneland las month, she beat the consistent She's Lookin Lucky (6) by a length in a conditions event. She looks up to today’s level.       

Miwa (2) is another possible late player. Her best efforts have come over further including a Grade 3 placing at Kentucky Downs. Awesome Czech (4) has more tactical speed than her. She has won stakes against New York breds in August and October. In between, she ran third in an open event. She looks one of the more playable of the bigger priced runners.                 

Chad Brown has two fillies entered. Weighted Average (7) is a last time maiden winner. The fact her trainer has entered her here is a positive. Her stablemate Fleetingly (10) has yet to make that big step forward since joining him. If Flavien Prat can keep her closer, it may come here.

22:00 Fair Grounds (Race 9) – The Thanksgiving Classic Stakes – Wendelssohn (3) @ SP

Komorebino Omoide (5) is interesting cutting back from longer races. He has some fine efforts in stakes including a Grade 3 win in May. The last time he ran over this distance, he was a good fourth in last year’s race. That was a deep renewal. He’s dangerous but maybe a more forwardly ridden runner can get the jump on him. Wendelssohn (3) made a fine return on the turf at Keeneland last month. He’s better on the dirt with some big efforts at Oaklawn earlier this year. That includes a stakes victory and runner up in Arkansas. He has speed but can run his race from just off the pace.    

Mondogetsbuckets (8) and Surveillance (7) finished second and fourth in a swiftly run stake at Churchill earlier this month. Like the selection, Mondogetsbuckets (8) was coming back after a lay off so may improve. He is a progressive four year old. Surveillance (7) is twice his age but still retains plenty of ability. His record at The Fair Grounds is six wins and a second from seven races. His stablemate The Wine Steward (9) is a New York bred at the top of his game right now. The cut back in distance really suited him when winning a state bred stake at Aqueduct last month.    

Goodlookinjustice (2) has been making hay in Indiana with a hat-trick against the locally bred horses. He gets a class rise but is too sharp to discount. In contrast, Baby Yoda (6) comes off a horrible effort at Aqueduct. He’s very inconsistent. A repeat of his victory there in June would likely win this. 

Bear River (4) is the wildcard in here but is a big player on class. His best form is on turf including a Grade 2 victory in August. He has playable form on wet dirt tracks. His only runs on dry dirt tracks came early in his career so he may run his race on any footing.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...