US Horse Racing Tips: Two picks from Keeneland

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back with his Thursday US Horse Racing Tips, looking for winners at Keeneland.

You will find his two selections below.

21:12 Keeneland (Race 7) – Easy Wind (1) @ SP

Fulleffort (7) put it all together on career start number three. He was a ready winner of maiden winner of Kentucky Downs last month. The speed figure he ran suggests he’s the runner to beat here. In his favour is the form of his trainer Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz taking the ride. That probably kills his price. Fellow last time out graduate Knoty Knicks (5) will be a much bigger number. He was impressive to the eye when breaking his maiden at Gulfstream last month. His trainer is hardly prolific but is three wins from his last seven starters.    

Baytown Dreamer (10) and Expressway (9) get class relief after tackling stakes company last time. The first named may be aggressively ridden to try and make the lead. The twice-raced Expressway (9) stayed on to finish fourth in a Grade 3 over six furlongs at Aqueduct last time. He runs if distances like todays’ will suit him. He’s one for shortlist for sure. 

East Village (6) and Easy Wind (1) come out of the same race at today’s level at Churchill last month. East Village (6) did slightly the better, staying on late to be beaten less than two lengths. He’s only had two starts so may improve again. Easy Wind (1) has a far from clear passage when just behind him. He draws well and now races with blinkers for the first time. As maybe the third favourite, he gets the vote. 

Longhi (3) and Collecting (4) both step up in distance from sprint races. The pair may improve as a result.

21:44 Keeneland (Race 8) – Sam's Treasure (4) @ SP

There is only a small field for the feature race on the card. Sam's Treasure (4) is likely to be a short priced favourite. She won her last start for trainer Wes Ward at the level below this at Churchill in June. The four year old was sold at auction for $270,00 in July. She ran well first time for new connections back at Churchill last month. At today’s level, she ran second. The winner went close in a better event subsequently. A repeat of her last run is likely to be good enough.   

The selection may be overbet. A few of her rivals are worth considering if that is the case. Bearing in mind, Sam's Treasure (4) couldn’t reel in an all the way winner last time, Caress (3) is definitely interesting. The frontrunner failed to last home in two races at Saratoga in the summer. Keeneland can often play well to runners with her running style. Ervadean (6) also has speed but can stalk and run her race. Off two good efforts in similar events at The Fair Grounds earlier in the year, she can win this.      

Lover Girl (5) and Tanya Showers (2) have been away since January and March respectively. Lover Girl (5) has been working well for her comeback. Tanya Showers (2) has the better form. She has already won at today’s level so has to run in to claimed for $80,000. Her trainer Chris Hartman has a fine record with lay off horses. He snapped a long, losing streak here last weekend.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...