US Horse Racing Tips: Sunday takes us to Churchill Downs

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back to deliver his Sunday US Racing Tips, which takes us to Churchill Downs for his latest selections.

You can find them below.

19:57 Churchill Downs (Race 5) - Abitibi @ 6/1

It will be interesting to see how they bet this race. The streaking Night Kiss (7) has the best form. As her four timer came in Indiana, she may not get the total respect she deserves. She has been running speed figures better than any her rivals.

Those victories have been in similar races to this one. She did run well in a stake and an allowance event at another Kentucky track Turfway in the winter. That suggests she’s not just a horse for course at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

The standard setter in this state is De' Ans Eighty (1). She is holding her form well. In her latest start, she was a close up third at this level at Keeneland. The rail drawn runner is on a frustrating run of placed efforts since a blowout victory in April.

She’s very solid but likely to be priced up accordingly. Gloriette (5) finished well behind her at Keeneland last month. She was used up in a speed duel. The four year old is better judged on a third place here in September. That day, she finished only a head behind De' Ans Eighty (1).

Abitibi (6) may be the play at the odds here. Like Gloriette (5), she finished behind De' Ans Eighty (1) last time but only about two lengths. She was bumped early and faded after stalking a hot pace. She’s better at six furlongs than seven, running second in an allowance event over the trip at Ellis Park in August. In June, she beat De' Ans Eighty (1) over course and distance. Maybe take her to win with a couple of saver forecasts with the favourites.

20:55 Churchill Downs (Race 7) - Idratherbeblessed @ 5/1

This is an interesting race with quite a few ways to go. Two runners who have playable form are making their first starts since the spring. Smokey Mandate (3) ran a career best when narrowly beaten at this level at Keeneland in April. He has been working well for his comeback. Poster (6) has been away slightly longer. The Grade 2 winner as a juvenile ran well in a deep stake at Turfway in March. The lone three-year-old in this line up may have his best races ahead of him.

Judge Davis (7) and Miranda Rights (4) have playable recent form. The first named was a winner over today’s distance at Aqueduct in September. Miranda Rights (4) lost a tight one to a runner on a roll at Keeneland last month.

He is likely to be finishing well. Noises Off (1) has more tactical speed than him. He’s been running at Kentucky Downs. The last time he raced over a more conventional track, he ran second at Ellis Park.

Surly Furious (2) and Idratherbeblessed (5) get class relief after tackling graded stakes company last time. The first named is unexposed on turf. Idratherbeblessed (5) seems a bigger threat. He has looked a non-stayer in back to back graded stakes over a mile-and-a-half. The five-year-old runs over a more suitable distance here.

He upset a Grade 2 field at The Fair Grounds in March.

That day regular rider Ben Curtis had him on an easy lead. There is a chance of similar here. With his trainer back in form, he may be worth siding with.

21:55 Churchill Downs (Race 9) - Incursion @ 3/1

This race is likely to have a clear-cut market leader in Incursion (2). He made a fine comeback when a nose second at this level at Keeneland last month. Off that run, he holds three of these. That race was over seven furlongs. His last victory did come by two lengths over course and distance. Provided Tyler Gaffalione can get him handy enough early on, he is could go one better.

Master Mule (1) finished only a neck behind Incursion (2) last time. The rail drawn runner has now ran big in back to back starts. He is too sharp to ignore. Chado (4) and Suited and Booted (3) finished further behind Incursion (2) and Master Mule (1). The pair were coming off lay-offs so may be fitter today. Both have playable back form. Chado (4) won a starter by six lengths at Colonial Downs in the summer. Suited and Booted (3) won at the same level here in May.

My Own (5) seems to improving. He beat Master Mule (1) by a length in a claimer here in September. Bearing in mind how well the runner up ran against Incursion (2) next time suggests he can win this. That big run came on a muddy dirt track. His one run on a dry surface wasn’t as good. He may simply be a better horse now. Mi Dinero (6) is another who has to prove himself on the footing. He can outrun his odds if he can transfer his turf and off track form to a likely fast track.

Shadow Coast (7) meets a tougher field than the field of maiden claimers he wired here in September. He does run first time for a trainer with a fine record with first time acquisitions. He’s dangerous if he makes the lead on his own. Tom Cat Tuesday (8) will be a shorter price.

The penny has suddenly dropped with him. He followed up a maiden claiming win with a victory when facing winners for the first time. If the selection is overbet, he is definitely one to consider.

Click the links for the latest Horse Racing Odds and Today's US Racing Odds

Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...