US Horse Racing Tips: Have Faith at Keeneland

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, returns with his Sunday US Horse Racing Tips, once again going for gold at Belmont At The Big A and Keeneland.

Read below to find out his three picks for Sunday, October 19.

19:04 Keeneland (Race 3) – Have Faith (4) @ SP

Most of these fillies are lightly raced and likely capable of better. Sugaree (5) and Peach Tie (8) drop in class after placed efforts in better races. Sugaree (5) finished third in an allowance event at Churchill. Peach Tie (8) has ran slightly faster in both her career starts. She was a good third in a stake at Presque Isle Downs last month. That’s arguably the best line of form in her. Her trainer, Brittany Russell, wins tons of races at the likes of Laurel and Delaware. Her record in Kentucky is nowhere near as good. That is the only knock on her chances.

Valala (9) broke her maiden second time out on the turf at Kentucky Downs. Her dam was best on the dirt, so she should be able to run her race on this surface. She draws the best of the speed types. L'éclair (1) has the often tricky post of the rail. She ran a competitive speed figure when breaking her maiden at Aqueduct last month. So did Starlit Nite (6) when winning a maiden claimer by open lengths at Churchill.

Two of these fillies won their only starts to date. Scot's Law (7) ran the bigger speed figure. She has worked well since and fits these race conditions to a tee. Have Faith (4) didn’t run as fast and beat very little. She did win by five lengths after blowing the start and looking green. In the hope she is a price, she may be worth a small interest.

Wickedwithbourbon (3) ran away and hid from a field of maiden claimers at Colonial Downs last month. Off that 16-length romp, she can contend now, facing winners for the first time.

21:44 Keeneland (Race 8) – Spanish Eyes (2) @ SP

The majority of these fillies and mares last raced in one of two stakes at Kentucky Downs. Miwa (8) did the best of those who ran in the one over an extended mile and a quarter. She ran third to a pair of talented gals. The four-year-old has hit form since a trainer change. She runs as if she will stay today’s distance. Duvet Day (4) finished a length behind her last time. She gets behind and gets going in the second half of her races. She missed in a stake by a nose the last time she raced over a mile and a half.

Spanish Eyes (2) ran too bad to be true in the stake Miwa (8) ran third in. She’s not the first and won’t be the last horse not to act on that track. Take out that run, and she’s a player in an open race. The former German-based filly was unlucky not to win graded stakes at Delaware and Colonial Downs. On both occasions, she was caught behind slow fractions going shorter than today’s trip. She could be a hostage to tactics again, but the longer distance should play in her favour.

As well as Spanish Eyes (2), red-hot trainer Brendan Walsh has Venencia (3) and Bless My Stars (9) entered. Both run first time in his care. Venencia (3) has the back class to contend with graded stakes placings earlier in the year and in July. She is unproven behind nine furlongs. Her stablemate Bless My Stars (9) is another stepping up in distance. She was a Grade 2 over 10 furlongs and Grade 1 placed over 11 in South Africa. Lack of a race since January is the one possible knock on her.

Adrasteia (5) outran her odds when third in stake over an extended mile at Kentucky Downs last month. If she handles the extra yardage, she can win this. Vive Veuve (6) ran behind her last time. She was made plenty of use of. The four-year-old is better judged on back-to-back victors at Churchill and Saratoga. She may get a better trip sitting behind likely leader Cupids Crush (7). She has a fine win record but in lesser company over shorter distances. If she makes the lead racing within herself, she may last a long time.

22:20 Belmont at The Big A (Race 9) – Toupie (9) @ SP

Trainer Miguel Clement has two good chances here. Danse Macabre (4) ran second in this race in 2023. She ran well in a Grade 3 at Keeneland in April and won a conditions race at Woodbine in July. It is easy to forgive her last run. She was in deep in a Grade 2 at Kentucky Downs and may not have handled the track. Her stablemate Dontlookbackatall (8) has claims off a fine second in a stake at Saratoga in August.

Toupie (9) gets the vote here. Looking at her run at Laurel last month, she is back to her best. She outfinished Lifelovenlaughter (7) in a stake there. The four-year-old has more tactical speed than she showed last time. She is going better now than when finishing behind Ready to Jam (2) in a Grade 3 at Woodbine in May. That filly is holding her form well. She has come off a stakes second at Woodbine and a runner-up try in a conditions event at Kentucky Downs. She’s a place chance at very least.

Truth and Beauty (6) lacks experience but is dangerous all the same. She wired a field of maidens in a very fast time at Saratoga in August. The four-year-old is eligible for softer races, so the fact she is entered here is a tip in itself. She may have the early speed to clear this field early. Do Gooder (3) may keep her honest up front, or her rider may opt to stalk her. She was a ready winner of a conditions event at Kentucky Downs last time. Cavalier Cupid (10) also ships in from out of state. The mount of Frankie Dettori won well at Colonia Downs last month.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...