US Horse Racing Tips: Paul marks your card for Saturday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back with Saturday's US Horse Racing Tips, providing his best bets from the various meetings taking place across the pond over the course of the day.

Check out his six selections below.

19:37 Belmont at The Big A (Race 5) - El Cordobes (1) @ 3/1

Only a maximum of five runners will go to post but it is a very deep renewal. So much so that last year’s winner Far Bridge (5) may one of the longest priced runners. Charlie Appleby is double-handed. His first string is the evergreen seven year old Rebel's Romance (3). He often comes up just short in The top Group 1’s in Europe but has won at that level in the far and middle east as well as North America. That includes The 2024 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s held his form well this summer culminating in a Group 1 victory in Germany. Frankie Dettori takes the mount with William Buick opting to go to Newmarket.     

Charlie Appleby has another player here in progressive four year old El Cordobes (1). He beat subsequent Stateside stakes winner Wimbledon Hawkeye in a Group 2 at Newmarket in July. A month later, he won The Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga. He only won by half a length from Rebel Red (4) but his effort suggested he may not stopped improving yet. Appleby had favourite Nation’s Pride in that race so being the second string here is not the negative it is for some trainers.                  

Flavien Prat rode El Cordobes (1) last time. He sticks with Redistricting (2) here. That may be more about his association with his trainer Chad Brown. He is unexposed over these longer distances. The five year old as a clear-cut winner of The Grade 2 United Nations over eleven furlongs in July. He may be the controlling speed of this race so can’t be underestimated. 

The one-eyed Rebel Red (4) ran El Cordobes (1) so close last time it would be unwise to dismiss him. Far Bridge (5) ran his worst race for a long time in the same event. He made it two from two over this track here in May. His two races after that were really good. Forgive his last and you have a contender at a decent price.

20:08 Belmont at The Big A (Race 6) - Locked (7) @ 9/5

Phileas Fogg (6) and Locked (7) are likely to head the market. Phileas Fogg (6) has been a revelation since joining his current trainer. His last two performances were his best. He beat a subsequent Grade 1 winner at Saratoga in July. Last month, he ran third in a deep Grade 1 there. He had to chase hard a pacemaker there and may be on or close to easier early fractions there. He’s three from four with a second place at Aqueduct.

When Phileas Fogg (6) won in July, Locked (7) was a well held third. His best effort came when trouncing a field in The Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March. His trainer Todd Pletcher has given him time away. There have been encouraging signs in his morning workouts. He may be worth siding with to be back to his best. 

Phileas Fogg (6) or Locked (7) don’t have to win this race. There are few others at possible prices worth considering. Post Time (2) is unbeatable at his home track Laurel. He has ran well outside Maryland including at The Breeders’ Cup and at Aqueduct. He’s in great form. So too are Willy D's (3) and Gould's Gold (5). The pair filled the places in a Grade 2 at Charles Town last month. Awesome Aaron (1) finished fourth in that race. It is worth bearing in mind, he beat Phileas Fogg (6) in May.         

The hat-trick seeking Film Star (4) gets a class test. He has ran well in this race before.

21:10 Belmont at The Big A (Race 8) - Impel (2) @ 6/1

R Disaster (1) looks the gal to catch and probably beat. She has ran well in graded stakes before. Last month, she wired All Class (6) by a length in a conditions event at Saratoga. The outside drawn pair have speed but she may be quicker than them early on. It will be interesting to see how close Senza Parole (8) is ridden to her early. She looked a stakes winner in the making when trouncing a field of maidens on debut as a two year old. Chad Brown’s filly didn’t make her second start until a year later. She coughed up a big lead as the odds on favourite. Maybe lack of fitness took its toll. She may be a different proposition second time back. The three year old is the one likely improver in here. 

Scalable (4) and Impel (2) have spent a lot of their careers in route races. Both seem better cutting back to one turn. Scalable (4) has not raced since winning a stake here in January. Her trainer Todd Pletcher has a fine record with lay off runners. She makes the shortlist along with Impel (2). She has won back to back starts at Ellis Park, including a stake. The four year old has some tactical speed and gets the services of Flavien Prat.

Sterling Silver (5) ran well after a wide trip in a stake on turf last month. She has been first past the post and third in the last two running’s of this race. The six year old is a possible upsetter. Maybe more so than fellow New York bred Sunday Girl (9). She did win her last three starts on dirt including a stake.    

Street View (7) is in career form but needs to improve a little to get more than a minor award. In contrast Patricia Ann (3) is not at her best based on her last two runs. They were on the turf and in the slop when behind R Disaster (1). Forgive those runs and she has a chance at a big price. 

21:26 Churchill Downs (Race 8)  - Most Wanted (1) @ 6/5

Most Wanted (1) looks the runner to catch and beat. He won back to back stakes as a three year old. This year, he wasn’t out of the first two in graded events up to his last run.  Off a clear-cut victory here, he was fancied in The Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga. He missed the break and was rushed up into a fast pace. It is easy to forgive that run. Provided he breaks on terms, he should be the controlling speed.   

Most Wanted (1) is likely to be a skinny price. If he blows the start again, he could have competition for the early lead. That would suit the hat-trick seeking Will Take It (2). He had Tumbarumba (5) back in third when winning over course and distance in May. The four year bettered that when winning a stake in June. He has been working well for his return. Tumbarumba (5) has finished behind him twice. He had This Is Uscar (4) back in third when winning a stake at Ellis Park last month.   

Indispensable (6) was in too deep when behind Fierceness and Journalism in a Grade 1 at Del Mar last month. He finished only a length behind Most Wanted (1) when they met last autumn. Three Technique (7) and Who Dey (8) will be much bigger prices. The first named  did win this race last year. Who Dey (8) is another who has success on this racetrack.   

21:41 Belmont at The Big A (Race 9) - Patriot Spirit (8) @ 5/1

The best dirt sprinter Stateside this year is Book’em Danno. A few of this field have ran into him in recent starts. Scotland (1), Crazy Mason (9) and Doc Sullivan (4) filled the places behind him at Saratoga last month in The Grade 1 Forego. That is strong form. Their chances have to be respected now dropping in class. Scotland (1) and Crazy Mason (9) are closers who were suited by getting plenty of pace to chase down. This race may not be run as fast early on. Doc Sullivan (4) has some tactical speed. He has a chance of reversing the form at a price.   

Nash (2) was badly beaten by Book’em Danno in a Grade 2 at Saratoga in July. He had a troubled start. Time off since suggests he may have had a physical issue. He is better judged on a victory in a super-fast time at Churchill in June. A repeat of that run and he’ll be hard to beat. Patriot Spirit (8) is likely to be much bigger price on his first run in New York. He ran really well in a stake at Churchill in May. Cut back to today’s distance on his comeback, he won a stake at Colonial Downs by four lengths. He faces a tougher here but seems to have the right running style to go close here.

Baby Yoda (6) is very capable on his day. He beat Light the Way (7) by a length in a minor event at Saratoga last time. The seven year did run freakishly well on his last visit to Aqueduct. Super Chow (3) has more early speed than him. If he makes the lead on his own, he could outrun his odds. 

22:29 Churchill Downs (Race 10) - Mystik Dan (5) @ 5/2

Banishing (7) has been one of the stories of the year Stateside. He’s much improved, winning four stakes and being second in another two. At Charles Town last month, he had Willy D's (1) two lengths back when winning a Grade 2 over today’s distance. The five year old has been on the go for a long time but shows no signs of his form tailing off.

One of his losses of Banishing (7) this year was to Mystik Dan (5) in a Grade 2 in May over course and distance. The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner didn’t run too badly in The Grade 1 Arlington Million considering turf is not his surface. He won’t have the services of regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. who had a bad fall recently. That is a slight negative but he gets back at a track he excels on.   

Rattle N Roll (3) is a stablemate of Mystik Dan (5). His best effort came when winning a Grade 2 here last November. He’s been absent since a below par effort in The Group 1 Dubai World Cup in April. He has been working really well for his comeback. The winner of The Dubai World Cup was Hit Show (2). He won this race last year but did get a good set up for a closer. A victory of a stake at Mountaineer last month suggests he’s at least as good as ever. Like Banishing (7) he is a big danger to the selection.        

Disarm (6) gets significant class relief after facing some of the best around in a pair of Grade 1’s. He is a late runner who may not get a lot of speed to chase down. In contrast, Prince of Power (4) could outrun his odds if he makes the lead on his own.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...