US Horse Racing Tips: Three picks for Saturday’s action

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back to deliver his Saturday US Racing Tips. It was Keeneland that caught his attention on Friday and he returns for his latest picks, as well as Belmont At The Big A.

You will find them below.

21:44 Keeneland (Race 8) - Dream On @ SP

A big purse has attracted a talented and oversubscribed field. If he had drawn better, Salamis (12) would be a no brainer. He may overcome that wide post based on the improvement he’s shown lately. A maiden win at Saratoga was followed by an impressive to the eye stakes victory at Aqueduct. In terms of ability, Final Gambit (5) can match him and any of these. He ran with credit in a trio of top stakes this summer. He’s quirky, getting behind and making late inroads. If the grey gets the right set up, he can go close here.

Four of these ran in a Grade 1 over six-and-a-half furlongs at Kentucky Downs last month. Troubleshooting (4) edged out Golden Afternoon (2) with Antisocial (3) back in fourth. Besides form from that track not always working out elsewhere, the longer distance may suit the winner as much the placed horses.

The lightly raced Tenacious Leader (8) has ran big in both starts on the turf. He made a winning belated three year old debut here at the start of the meet. If he improves only a little from that, he can win this. He’s a possibility in a wide open race. So too is Simulate (10). He’s had no racing luck lately, especially when second to Giocoso (9) in a Grade 2 at Colonial Downs in August. That said the winner of that race followed that up with a runner up try to Plensa (9) in a $1,000,000 stake at Kentucky Downs.

This may be a race to throw some mud at a big price and hope it sticks. Mesero (1) is one possibility. He seems to be progressing. Dream On (6) may be overlooked in the market after losing to Giocoso (9) and Troubleshooting (4) in his last two starts. He had far from ideal trips in both.

21:53 Belmont At The Big A (Race 10) - Iron Dome @ SP

Contention runs to maybe three or four of these in the track’s feature event. The most likely winner seems to be Iron Dome (2). He is a progressive three-year-old who has improved since stepping up today’s distance. A maiden win was followed up by a pair of wide margin victories over fellow New York breds. The last was in a similar race to this one at Saratoga. His trainer Steve Asmussen tried him in open company last time and he ran with credit. He was a fine second in The Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby. The winner is a much improved colt. Now back with his ‘friends’, he may be hard to beat.

Doc Sullivan (1) has been swimming in much deeper waters than this. He’s been running in graded stakes. His fourth in The Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga was a super effort. The last time he ran against New York breds, he was a winner of a stake. He’s been running over seven furlongs. He did seem to stay nine furlongs when second in a stake last summer. With the right sort of trip, he could upset the selection.

Bank Frenzy (5) has had some time away since a below par run behind Doc Sullivan (1) in July. He is better judged on a stakes victory at Saratoga in June. He is two from three over today’s distance. His only loss came when second in this race last year. He has been working well for his return. His trainer Rudy Rodriguez is in fine form after having a lean summer.

Dr. Kraft (3) and Quick to Accuse (4) have been running in open company. Dr. Kraft (3) was on a hat-trick when coming up just short in a starter here last Saturday. He seemed to have his limitations exposed when behind Bank Frenzy (5) in June. Quick to Accuse (4) has a squeak off a clear-cut victory at Delaware in August.

22:16 Keeneland (Race 9) - Rattle N Rolle @ SP

Bracket Buster (3) has shown big improvement in his last two starts. He ran second at a  safe distance at top-notcher Sovereignty in The Grade 1 Travers in August. Five weeks later, he was three lengths too good for his rivals in The Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby. He’s one of the more likely winners in a competitive event.

It must have been a tough decision for Luis Saez to get off Bracket Buster (3) and stick with Gosger (10). He’s twice finished in front of Bracket Buster (3) admittedly before he got really good. The first was when winning a Grade 3 here in April. He followed that up with fine runner up tries in The Grade 1 Preakness and Grade 1 Haskell. He comes off a below par effort in The Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby but did stumble badly at the break.

Bracket Buster (3) and Gosger (10) face some talented older horses. Brad Cox trains two of them. Dragoon Guard (9) was a clear-cut winner of a minor event at Churchill last month. He looks back to his Grade 3 winning form of last year. His stablemate Hit Show (11) has an even better C.V. He won The Group 1 Dubai World Cup in April. The five-year-old is two for two at Keeneland including scoring in the race last year. He ran below form last time out at Churchill but has worked well since.

Rattle N Roll (6) was well beaten last time but had been away since The Dubai World Cup in April. He may be a different proposition second time back after a long absence. The booking of low profile rider Manny Esquivel may help his odds drift a bit. He has a really good record when he rides for Ken McPeek. His best form from Kentucky last year puts him right there.

Lambeth (1), Dilger (4) and Moonlight (5) come off fine efforts in lesser races. The trio are too sharp to ignore. Moonlight (5) may have the most appeal. He may get a similar pace set up to when he won a conditions event at Churchill last month.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...