US Horse Racing Tips: Three picks for Saturday’s action

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back with his Saturday US Horse Racing Tips, looking for winners at Belmont At The Big A and Keeneland.

You will find his three selections below.

20:25 Belmont At The Big A (Race 7) - Pretty Picture @ SP

The first four from a stake run here over a mile on 20 September reoppose each other. Ready for Candy (5) was backing up a maiden win over today’s distance at Saratoga.

She is much improved since moving to New York and joining her current trainer. The hat-trick is a possibility. That said, she only had a nose to spare from Paradise City (7), who ran her best race to date when trying the turf for the first time. She finished two lengths clear of Decadent (8) and Griselda (4). The latter is a former French-based filly. She made a winning Stateside debut and was a tad disappointing in that stake. She’s likely better than her last run.

The other four fillies in this lineup have upside to varying degrees. Boca Queen (1) looked like a filly of some potential when breaking her at Woodbine maiden on debut. She has been one-paced in two stakes events subsequently.

The fact that her capable trainer sends her south for this is a hint of better things to come. That is likely to be true of the unbeaten Pretty Picture (6). She has faced inferior fields in two victories at Monmouth. Her one run on the turf on her career debut was a very promising one. In the hope of more to come, she gets the vote.

Winfinity (3) comes off a win and two placed efforts against Virginia Breds at Colonial Downs. She is not out of this. Neither is Fast Market (2) off her last run. She looked much improved, stepping back up from sprints. That maiden win was very impressive.

20:40 Keeneland (Race 6) - Captain Cook @ SP

Captain Cook (5) ran some fine races earlier in his three-year-old season. He took his form to a new level, running first time for Todd Pletcher in late August. In The Grade 1 Allen Jerkens over today’s distance, he lost by a nose to a very talented colt.

A repeat of that effort, and he will win this. He has been given eight weeks to get over that big effort. Irad Ortiz is likely to have him forwardly placed in stalk mode. The one negative is he’s never raced at Keeneland. That said, his rivals are either winless or first-timers here.

Bob Baffert has two colts entered. Both were at one time ante-post favourites for The Kentucky Derby. Barnes (3) had a wide trip and possibly found six furlongs too sharp at Philadelphia last month. He ran well when a length and a half behind Captain Cook (5) in that Grade 1. He’s reunited with Jose Ortiz, who got a good tune out of him at Saratoga.

His stablemate Gaming (1) had an eventful trip when well beaten on his return. He’s never really gone on from his juvenile days. His stakes-winning form at Santa Anita in June gives him a chance.

Owen Almighty (4) got further than The Baffert pair as he ran in Kentucky Derby. He was a creditable fifth at Churchill Downs despite looking a non-stayer. His best form has come over well short of a mile and a quarter, including a stakes victory over today’s distance. He ran as if something was amiss when favourite for a $500k stake at Charles Town on his comeback. He’s a tough read off that, but is in good hands, so may rebound.

Taylor's Version (2) is a lightly raced improver. His breakout effort came when a clear-cut winner of a conditions race at Churchill last month. This is a step up in class as well as distance.

The speed figure he ran suggests he belongs in graded stakes. Add in the possibility of the lead on his own, and he could upset this field. He may have company on the front end from Rolando (6). The last time he raced on dirt, he wired a stakes field by four lengths over a mile at Colonial Downs. A repeat of that run, and he will be right there when they are giving out the rosettes.

22:16 Keeneland (Race 9) - Simply Joking @ SP

Ragtime (9) looks the gal to beat. She narrowly lost a Grade 1 at Saratoga in August. That was only her loss in four career starts. In the latest, she was a clear-cut winner of a Grade 3 at Churchill last month. She was slow away but did get fast fractions to chase down. Strong State (3) and Delightful Claire (1) filled the places behind her last time.

The last named ran really, setting that hot tempo. If Joel Rosario can work out a trip from the rail, she could get a lot closer to Ragtime (9).

Bob Baffert’s Usha (8) had looked only modest as a juvenile. She has looked like a new horse this term. She’s won both her starts by an aggregate of seventeen lengths. The fields she slammed were a lot softer than this one. On the clock, she can win a graded stake at her first attempt. She will have to race without lasix now, which could be the reason for her transformation.

Two of these fillies make their comebacks after last racing in The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks in May. Both were well beaten. Quietside (11) had narrowly beaten Simply Joking (10) in a Grade 2 at Oaklawn prior to that.

The pair have been working really well and are worth considering. Based on her runs, Simply Joking (10) may be more likely to be suited to cutting back to seven furlongs. She runs for a new trainer, so she is likely to be ready to fire. The mount of Frankie Dettori gets the vote.

Maida (7) and Om N Joy (5) are fillies on a roll. The first named made it a hat-trick of victories when winning a stake at Laurel by eight lengths. Om N Joy (5) has an even longer winning streak going. She made it a five-timer when taking a Grade 3 at Del Mar in late August. The pair are too sharp to ignore.

Vodka With a Twist (12) ran a slightly below par fourth in a Grade 2 here a fortnight ago. She has a chance off a fine second in a Grade 2 at Charles Town prior to that. She’s an easier read than Vixen (2), who has never raced on dirt. She is a stakes winner on turf, so she is up to this based on class.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...