US Horse Racing Tips: Paul marks your Saturday card

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back with his Saturday US Horse Racing Tips, looking for winners at Belmont At The Big A and Keeneland.

You will find his three selections below.

18:43 Belmont At The Big A - Major Dude @ SP

When looking at this race, you have to start with Big Everest (6). He’s running in this race for the fourth time, winning it in 2022 and 2023. He came up only a neck shy last year in his hat-trick attempt. His form has been inconsistent this term but he did win at Saratoga in July. Maybe he resented rating tactics at Monmouth last time. He is very likely to make the lead on his own.

Big Everest (6) may be tough to reel in but Major Dude (2) looks capable of doing it. He drops in class after running in a trio of graded stakes. He was placed in the first two behind some talented horses. The five year old ran a little below that form last month. That was a deep stake at Kentucky Downs. This is a far more winnable opportunity.

Major Dude (2) and Big Everest (6) are likely to separate themselves at the head of the market. Next in the betting may be Horsepower (5). He ran his best race of the year when second in a Grade 3 at Woodbine last month. That was over seven furlongs. All of his other from is over shorter. If he stays on his first try over a mile, he can go well.

Lucky Score (1) got well behind early when only beaten a couple of lengths in a Grade 2 at Woodbine in August. He may not a hot pace up front to run down this group. Unlike him, Sand Pipes (3) and Otago (4) go up in class. The first named has won back to back conditions races at Monmouth. His trainer and that off Otago (4) go for trainers with good records with the few horses they run in New York. Otago (4) has a chance off a stakes win in New Jersey in May.

21:53 Belmont At The Big A - It Ain't Two @ SP

Love Cervere (2) won a stake over course and distance in May. She has ran well in all three starts since then. Last month at Kentucky Downs, she looked an unlucky second in a deep allowance conditions event. She is a deep closer who needs to find the gaps late on. At Saratoga in August, Pop Idol (5) built up too much of an early lead when wiring her Abientot (9).

That filly was used up in a pace duel in a stake at Woodbine last month. She may be the dominant speed of this race and is dangerous if loose on the lead.

Flat Out Time (3) and It Ain't Two (7) may get nice trips sat just off Pop Idol (5). Flat Out Time (3) comes off a Grade 3 placing on the dirt at Saratoga. She has never raced on turf before but has worked really well on grass in the mornings. The former Hugo Palmer trained It Ain't Two (7) is hardly unexposed. She may be a price off a troubled trip in a deep Grade 2 at Kentucky Downs. She ran well when second to Love Cervere (2) when they met in June.

Me Governor (4) ships back into New York after a clear-cut victory at Colonial Downs. In her only previous visit to Aqueduct, she beat Annascaul (10) in a stake. The runner up bounced back to form by beating a field of state breds at Saratoga.

The old rivals are place chances. So too is Italian Soiree (1) who beat Abientot (9) in a stake at Saratoga two starts back.

Slightly Busy (8) may rebound racing in blinkers for the first time.

22:16 Keeneland - Laurelin @ SP

This is often a very deep stake. This year is no exception. There are the winners of many of the best turf races for three year old fillies this summer and autumn. Fionn (9) is on a graded stakes four-timer. She had the pacey Opulent Restraint (5) back in third when taking a Grade 1 at Saratoga in July. Last month, it was only a Grade 3 but a $2,000,000 purse attracted a salty field.

She was dead game in beating Candy Quest (6) by half a length with Destino d'Oro (7) a below par sixth. That was over further but her Grade 1 victory came over today’s distance.

Laurelin (2) is unbeaten in five career starts. Her latest victory was her best on her toughest assignment to date. She had Opulent Restraint (5) back in third when winning The Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks. In her favour is tactical speed and a good draw. Looking at her races, she looks capable of better still. She gets the vote to come out best.

Laurelin (2) and Fionn (9) are likely to be well clear of the rest at the top of the market. There are a few in here that are worth considering at bigger prices. From a pace point of view Opulent Restraint (5) is definitely one of them. She plots to be on an easy lead.

That makes her dangerous. Candy Quest (6) has the opposite running style. She has to be respected considering how close she ran to the favourites in recent starts.

Lush Lips (1) and Destino d'Oro (7) are others who may have price appeal. The rail drawn runner was a close up second in The Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last time. Destino d'Oro (7) and Daisy Flyer (4) may have raced on the worse part of the track when behind Fionn (9) at Kentucky Downs. Destino d'Oro (7) looked a talented filly when a clear-cut winner of a Grade 3 at Kentucky Downs in August.

If this race was her next after The Group 11,000 Guineas, Simmering (3) would be a fraction of the price she will be. Since that fine third, she has ran poorly admittedly in the best company at The Curragh and Royal Ascot.

She may have signalled a return to form in a Group 3 at Deauville last time. Her trainer Olie Sangster has chosen this race over others nearer home. It is hard to disagree too much with anyone who wants to back her at a big number.

Click the links for the latest Horse Racing Odds and Today's US Racing Odds

Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...