US Horse Racing Tips: Paul marks your Friday card

Paul Quigley, our stateside aficionado, is back on Friday to provide his three best bets from across the pond. He likes the look of runners at Churchill Downs and Del Mar.

You can check out his latest US Racing Tips below.

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

22:25 Churchill Downs (Race 10) - Bracelet each-way @ SP

Fast Market (2) must be a doubtful runner after winning a Grade 3 at Aqueduct only last Sunday. That will make Lush Lips (1) an even shorter-priced favourite. She’s an improving three year with a Grade 1 runner up and victory in her last two starts.

At Keeneland last month, she beat a pair of top drawer turf three-year-old fillies. In her favour is tactical speed. In a race where they may not go too fast early on, regular rider Tyler Gaffalione should have her in a good early position. She meets an inferior field to the one she beat last time. With that in mind, it’s hard to argue with anyone who wants to take a skinny price about her.

Classic Q (4) and Somethinabouther (8) filled the places in a Grade 2 at Keeneland last month. The form of that race is questionable but Classic Q (4) has upside in this spot. She got well behind after being steadied early on. Her best form has come when aggressively ridden early on. That includes a stakes victory and a Grade 3 runner-up at Saratoga in the summer.

Pretty Picture (10) and Bracelet (7) are both listed at double digit odds on the morning line. They go for Chad Brown and Brad Cox with Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz booked to ride. That may man the pair are a little shorter. Pretty Picture (10) ran third in a Grade 2 at Aqueduct on only career start number three. The runner up Fast Market (2) franked the form when winning a Grade 3 next time. She has upside. So too does Bracelet (7).

She defied a long absence to beat Princess Attitude (6) in a conditions event at Keeneland last month. The form of that race may be better than it looked at the time. The third ran a good second to Fast Market (2) in that Aqueduct Grade 3 subsequently. She has to improve second time back to be competitive but may do enough to make the frame.

22:54 Churchill Downs (Race 11) - First Mission @ SP

There is a nice mix of established older horses and a trio of talented three-year-olds in this line up. The principals from a Grade 3 at Keeneland last month reoppose here. Grade 1 Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show (3) came back to form.

He beat Rattle N Roll (6) by a length with Gosger (4) a neck back in third. Hit Show (3) is a little inconsistent but his best form is good enough to win this. He did finish behind Rattle N Roll (6) in this race last year. The last named improved massively second time back after a long absence. He is a late runner so can be a hostage to tactics. Less so Grade 1 Haskell runner up Gosger (4). He now races in blinkers for the first time after his finishing effort was a little tame last time.

Like his stablemate Hit Show (3), First Mission (2) can run the odd mystifying one. His third in a Grade 1 over course and distance in June is contending form. Not so a long odds on loss at Monmouth and a well held fourth a Grade 1 at Santa Anita subsequently. He’s been freshened up and has been working really well. The last jockey to win on him Flavien Prat is back aboard. In a wide open race, he gets a tepid vote.

Along with Gosger (4), Chunk of Gold (5) and Magnitude (9) are three-year-olds who could beat their elders. Chunk of Gold (5) won a Grade 3 at Mountaineer by open lengths in August.

He bettered that with an eight length demolition in a conditions event at Keeneland. Like him, Magnitude (9) has speed. He showed a new dimension to his game when second from off the pace in The Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. At his best, he is the best of the younger generation in here.

The Mike Maker trained pair of Cooke Creek (1) and Willy D's (8) are capable types but look a cut below the best in here. Things will have to drop perfectly for the pair to get more than a very minor award.

23:30 Del Mar (Race 7) - Mondego @ SP

The first three from last year’s race are in this line up. Then Truly Quality (7) rallied late on to deny Balnikhov (8) with Nineeleventurbo (4) back in third. The winner must have had some physical issue as he’s only raced twice since and once since February. He ran well on his comeback in August but has had time off since. He’s the horse to beat. It’s hard to be too confident about him at a short price with those lay off lines.

Balnikhov (8) ended a long losing run when winning an allowance optional claimer on his return at the start of the month. He beat Flashiest (2) by two plus lengths. That may be a good springboard for another big effort in this event.

His off the pace running style means his rider often doesn’t always get the gaps at the right time or has to go very wide. Like him, Nineeleventurbo (4) is not big on winning. He has been running over shorter. The step back up to a mile-and-a-half offers some hope of a big effort.

Mondego (9) hasn’t raced over today’s distance but is bred to handle it. He won a conditions event over 11 furlongs here before running well in defeat in a pair of graded stakes. As no better than the third favourite here, he may be the play at the odds.

Grogu (5) faces a stiff task based on class. He still have upside if he’s a big number. He’s looked much-improved since a trainer change. He won a minor event over a mile and a quarter at Santa Anita last month. The way he finished off that race gives hope he’ll will improve over another two furlongs.

The one certainty about this race is Balladeer (1) will be on the lead on his own. That would normally be a playable angle for a longshot. He’s been hard to handle, over racing in these longer distances many times in the past.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...