US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s picks for Friday

Our Stateside expert Paul Quigley is back to deliver his Friday US Racing Tips, which takes us to Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs.

You can find his two selections - one from each of the aforementioned venues - below.

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

21:45 Fair Grounds (Race 7) - Little Miss Curlin @ SP

The standard setter is Liteupthenite (6). She won a stake at Delta Downs at the start of the month despite being very wide most of the way. The cut back in distance could work against her as she seemed to need all of that seven furlong distance to run down Swampy (5). The runner up was only having her second career start. That and her debut being in August are grounds for thinking she may improve, especially over shorter.

Liteupthenite (6) and Swampy (5) are players but they and the rest of this field face a potentially more talented filly. Little Miss Curlin (2) is a daughter of a Grade 2 winner. She was a well backed favourite on debut at Delta Downs last month. Her supporters never had a moments worry. She contested the pace and drew off to win by four-plus lengths. That may not have been a great field of maidens but she won in a decent time. More ground here will suit. She has worked well twice since her unveiling suggesting she will improve again.

Fly Strong (9), El Sunshine (1) and Allons Betta Lee (8) filled the places in a stake at Louisiana Downs in August. Fly Strong (9) may be the quickest in here early on. She is dangerous if she makes the lead on her own. El Sunshine (1) was slowly away. She has a look of a work in progress so may improve.

Wickedwithbourbon (3) broke her maiden by a space at Colonial Downs. She was in deep at Keeneland subsequently. The mount of Ben Curtis is a possible upsetter now racing with lasix for the first time. On the Horizon (7) has more to prove but may improve off a five-length debut score.

21:55 Churchill Downs (Race 9) - Not This Boy @ SP

The track’s feature event is a stakes calibre allowance optional claimer. The majority of this field have form in stakes races or drop in class from graded events. Not This Boy (4) is a lightly raced and progressive four-year -old. He gave Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show a fright in a stake at Mountaineer in August. Although below that form at today’s level here next time, he had excuses. He wasn’t ridden to best effect by Luan Machado. Brian Hernandez Jr. is back in the saddle. He was aboard when he blew away a field over today’s course and distance in June.

Not This Boy (4) is forecast to be favourite. He goes for a low profile but capable trainer and the presence of Brad Cox’s Catching Freedom (7) may make him a backable price. He came back to near his Grade 2 winning best at Keeneland last month. There he ran second to a classy colt. His trainer is having a very strong meet and Irad Ortiz has been booked for the ride. Capital Idea (6) finished just over a length behind him last time. He was on a hat-trick

after back to back victories at Saratoga. It can be argued he’s at his best at one mile. He did seem to stay the slightly longer distance last time.

Gun Party (1) ran too bad to be true on his return here. He had been away eleven weeks and may not have handled the sloppy track. The rail-drawn runner has a chance off victories here in June and Saratoga in August. Like him, Jayhawk (5) and Mackman (8) are possible upsetters. Both take the next step up in class after winning at the level below this one. Jayhawk (5) will be trying the dirt for the first time. Mackman (8) a long absence when scoring at Keeneland.

Prince of Power (2) and Best Actor (3) were flat out overmatched in a Grade 3 at Keeneland last month. This is a far more winnable spot.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...