US Horse Racing Tips: Paul marks your Friday card

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back with his Friday US Horse Racing Tips, looking for winners at Keeneland.

You will find his two selections below.

22:16 Keeneland - Jakajaro @ SP

This looks a wide open sprint. Bergen (3) will rightly take money.

He comes off back to back runner up tries in similar races at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs. In the latest, Attache (10) finished only a head behind him. He can get behind early on. In contrast, Butch's Best (1) and Monsieur Frosty View (6) are seen to best effect on the lead.

The last named is interesting cutting back from a mile. His career best effort came sprinting in May. He was outfinished by Chromed Impulse (11) in August.

Test Factor (4) and Monsieur Candy (5) ship in to Kentucky after good efforts at Colonial Downs. The last named may be the more dangerous. His best effort came when breaking his maiden over course and distance. Slider (7) and Smokey Smokey (8) both lack recent races. The first named is a stakes winner on turf. Smokey Smokey (8) was highly tried last year. He has been working well for his belated four-year-old debut.

It is hard to know how well Jakajaro (2) fits with the American based runners. The chances are pretty well. Looking at who owns him, he’s probably having his last run for Robert Cowell before switching to a trainer to be based Stateside.

He has held his own in top handicaps this term like The Stewards Cup and Betfred Portland. The booking of Ben Curtis is a positive one as he’s likely to ride him aggressively. He lacks the sexy profile of an Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby invader so may go off a good price.

22:48 Keeneland - Good Lord @ SP

Many of these are running first time for new trainers. Good Lord (9) was claimed for $50,000 off a third at Churchill last month. That form has been franked by the winner scoring again and the runner up going close next time.

In an open looking race, he has a better chance than most. Off a run at Ellis Park in August, he holds Incursion (10) who was the odds on favourite. That runner ran below the form that saw him win back to back races in June. Now freshened up, he is a rebound candidate. The fact he comes back in a race where he can’t be claimed is a positive. That and the booking of jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

Suited and Booted (1) runs in his lowest spot since he broke his maiden on debut. His victory in a similar race to this one in May is contending form. He has been working well for his first start for his new trainer. He’s a possibility.

So too is California invader Nation (6). The five year old was a running on third in a similar race to this one at Del Mar in late August. The extra ground here is in his favour.

Explosively (11) goes from one capable trainer to another via a claim. He probably needs to improve a little to be more than a place chance. That is also true with Master Mule (5) and Tejas (2). The last named runs first time for a trainer who can transform recent acquisitions so he could take a big step forward.

Chado (12) upset a starter field by six lengths at Colonial Downs in late August. At the time, the win had a look of a fluke about it. Since then, the second, third and four have come back to run well in fair company suggesting the form is solid. Away from the likely favourites, he may have the most upside.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...