US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s three best bets for Friday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back to deliver his Friday US Racing Tips, which takes us to Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.

You can find his three selections below.

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

19:10 Aqueduct (Race 5) - Lawyer Mason (8) @ SP

The most accomplished runner in this race is Spirit of New York (1). He had Lawyer Mason (8) back in third when winning a stake over six furlongs here in late September. He has tactical speed and runs as if he will get the extra two furlongs here. His rail draw is a positive. He’s the standard setter but there are a few in here who could improve past him.

The most obvious likely improver in here is Caroline St. Beat (5). He’s a really well bred and ran to his billing on debut at Saratoga in August. Looking very professional, he was a two plus length winner of a maiden with Tim and Sam (4) back in third. The fact his second start is some three months later suggests he’s had some physical issue. His trainer has been playing catch up as this is the last week of turf racing in the state. Manny Franco appears to have got off Spirit of New York (1) to renew his partnership with him. He is the runner to fear.

It is hard to put anyone off Spirit of New York (1) and Caroline St. Beat (5) too much. That said, there a runners with upside at likely prices in this line up. Truman's Commander (2) gets significant class relief after being far from disgraced in a Grade 2 last month. Jaxer (6) has looked a work in progress for trainer Graham Motion. He showed a nice turn of foot in blinkers first time under Flavien Prat last month. Maybe Lawyer Mason (8) will offer the most value. He was held up in traffic when third to Spirit of New York (1) last time. In addition, he’s bred to come into his own now stepping up to a mile.

20:55 Churchill Downs (Race 7) - Killjoy (9) @ SP

Killjoy (9) was a fading fourth in a $50,000 claimer over seven and a half furlongs here in late September. He may have found the company too hot and the distance too far, especially as he set decent fractions for the trip. The three year old wired a field of cheaper claimers sprinting here prior to that. He’s unexposed on the dirt. There looks to be little competition for the lead and he draws outside possible pace partner Beezer (8). That could a no excuse trip under Tyler Gaffalione. 

Trainer Joe Sharp is double-handed. Big Salt Lick (3) was claimed by him off a runner up try in a slightly cheaper at Keeneland last month. He has place claims. His stablemate Itsinmyblood (5) also runs first time for him. He seemed to find nine furlongs too far when behind Iron Sharpens Iron (10) last time. The three year old looks dangerous cutting back in distance. Old rival Iron Sharpens Iron (10) is likely to get behind early. Maybe less than normal now racing in blinkers for the first time.

King Peanut (1) has been placed in his last three starts. He could make the podium again. Hedge (4) is a tougher read but could be sitting on a breakout effort. He’s been overmatched in much tougher races. His new trainer spots him for action, running him for sale for the first time since he broke his maiden.

21:55 Churchill Downs (Race 9) - Jakajaro (3) @ SP

Presuming reserves Go Captain (13) and Linzer (14) don’t get in this race, for a turf sprint there won’t be a lot of speed in this line up. That makes Our Starry Night (12) very dangerous. He is a lightly raced and improving three year old, winning at the level below this one at Keeneland last month. It was only by a nose. The runner up scored next time and the third went close in his next start.

Smokey Smokey (7) is the standard setter at today’s level. He had been a year when runner up over today’s distance at Keeneland last month. He’s worked well since that comeback run and has been gelded recently. A few of these in here finished behind him last time ran below form. One of them is Jakajaro (3). It is interesting that Robert Cowell wants to persevere with The Stateside campaign with him. He is hardly a regular winner but has kept good company over here. It will be no surprise if he leaves that last run behind.   

Let My People Go (5) gets back to a track he has done his best work at. He beat Eakly (4) over course and distance in June. That runner franked the form by beating Attache (9) and Foxtrotanna (10) next time.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...