US Horse Racing Tips: Paul marks your Saturday card

Saturday sees two Grade 1 Kentucky Derby preps taking place stateside, from Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park.

Our US Horse Racing tipster Paul Quigley has studied the cards and come up with two selections for your consideration.

22:42 Gulfstream Park - Nearly @ SP

This is a really good and deep renewal. So much so that Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma (8) may be fourth favourite at 8 or 10/1. He ran a promising second Chief Wallabee (2) here when both were making their career debuts.

The winner ran even better second time out. He gave Commandment (4) a real race when losing by a neck to him in The Grade 2 Fountain of Youth this last month. Chief Wallabee (2) still looked a little green.

He has a decent chance of reversing the form. Commandment (4) got a heads-up ride from Irad Ortiz. Flavien Prat now takes the mount as Ortiz has decided to go to Oaklawn to ride the favourite in the big race there. Commandment (4) has improved with each of his four career starts and is an obvious big player.

The other horse that will take plenty of money here is Nearly (6). His last two runs put him firmly in the picture here. The most recent was a near six-length victory in The Grade 3 Holy Bull here over an extended mile. On the clock he’s not far off Chief Wallabee (2) and Commandment (4). The way he has been working suggests there is another step forward in him.

He seems to have the natural speed to get a good early position and get first run on his market rivals. More so If Redland Rebels (5) is scratched to run in The Arkansas Derby. The play as the likely third favourite.

The Puma (8) hasn’t made the same massive improvement speed figure-wise as old rival Chief Wallabee (2). He did win The Grade 3 Tampa Derby with a career best. Redland Rebels (5) finished fourth with a pair of promising types in between them. The stakes placed Wayne's Law (3) and promising maiden winner Albus (1) need to take a step forward to get more than a minor award.

23:48 Oaklawn Park - Renegade @ SP

Before the Grade 1 preps today, the clear ante post favourite for The Kentucky Derby is Paladin. He won The Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct in December. The two-length second to him was Renegade (6). He improved and at the same time gave that form a boost next time.

At Tampa in February, he was a near four length winner of a stake. Stamina is his strong suit so stepping up to nine furlongs will suit. This race is nowhere near as deep and classy as The Grade 1 Florida Derby. There is some talent in this race so he may have to run at least as well to win this. Incidentally Irad Ortiz who had a decent chance on Commandment in the big race at Gulfstream prefers to renew his association with him.

The local prep for this is The Grade 2 Rebel. The late running Silent Tactic (2) came up a nose shy to an improving stablemate of Renegade (6). He has now run two fine races on this Oaklawn track. He’s a bit pace dependent but should be closing as the winning line looms. In contrast, Litmus Test (9) had his stamina issues exposed when five lengths behind him. In fairness, his rider set decent fractions. Now switching from the rail to the outside, maybe he can be ridden a bit more patiently.

Two class acts in here need to rebound. Blackout Time (3) was a below par fourth in The Rebel. It was his first run since a fine effort in a Grade 1 in October. There, he ran second to juvenile champion Ted Noffey. He has worked well since his comeback. His connections need him to run big to get enough points to get into The Kentucky Derby.

That is also the case with Napoleon Solo (7). He won both his starts at two including a wide margin score in The Grade 1 Champagne at Aqueduct. His comeback was disappointing admittedly in a race  loaded with talent. His trainer has a super record second time back after a long lay off.

Bricklin (4) ran third in The Sunland Derby. That form looks a lot better now as the second was narrowly beaten in The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby last Saturday. He looked good on his only previous start here. Redland Rebels (1) is also entered for The Grade 1 Florida Derby. He is unexposed on dirt. The rail drawn runner will add to the speed mix if he runs here.

Taptastic (5) is The X Factor here winning a maiden on his only start to date. This is a stiff task but his trainer Steve Asmussen has won this race four times.

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