Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Picks: Former Kentucky Derby winner to cause surprise?

We are making our way towards the end of the Breeders' Cup Races and previews here on Betfred Insights but the penultimate race could throw up a bit of a surprise.

Race 11 is the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and our man on the ground Paul Quigley thinks a former Kentucky Derby winner may have another big race left in him at a good price...

Just the three for Bob Baffert in this event. His first string is without question Nysos (3). He was unbeaten going into last spring but had to miss The Kentucky Derby. He's ran big in all his three starts since he returned in May. In truth, he beat overmatched rivals in his last two races. It could be folly to oppose him. He was being aimed at The Breeders' Cup Classic until he had to miss his prep race. His main rivals are no mugs so he will have to be on his game.

His stablemates Goal Oriented (2) and Citizen Bull (7) were supposed to go well in The Kentucky Derby and Preakness. The first named has run well behind Classic bound Journalism and Baeza in his last two starts. Citizen Bull (7) got a confidence-boosting victory last time. He is three from four at Del Mar including last year's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.       

Full Serrano (6) has the same record as Citizen Bull (7) on this track. His best effort was when winning this race last year. That day he was in the firing line the whole way pressing very quick early fractions. He only made his comeback in September, showing he retains plenty of ability in both starts. He's very playable.        

White Abarrio (10) won The Breeders' Cup Classic in 2023. His form has been in and out since. Like Nysos (3), the fact he runs here instead of the big one is possible negative. Less so for last year's Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (4). He is a cut below the best around but is capable in races where there's no top-notcher. The four-year-old could get a nice trip just off the speed. Chancer McPatrick (8) will be coming from further back.      

*You can bet on and check out the latest Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Odds over on betfred.com 

Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...