Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks: The Sovereignty scratch opens up the race

Here we go - the race we've all been waiting for. Race 9 on the card is the Breeders' Cup Classic and who will follow the likes of all-timers such as Curlin, American Pharoah, Arrogate and Authentic to become champion? 

Sierra Leone is looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Tiznow back in 2000/2001. Our US Racing expert however thinks the wide-open race following the scratch of heavy-favourite Sovereignty will be won by a Todd Pletcher four-year-old... 

The only good thing about the scratching of Sovereignty (6) is it's now a wide open betting race. The first three home from last year's renewal are in this line up. Sierra Leone (7) got fast fractions to chase down when beating Fierceness (1) and Forever Young (5).

He has fired big in his last three starts this term. The question is can the 'rabbit' Contrary Thinking (4) that Chad Brown has entered have the desired effect. Fierceness (1) ran the best the way the race was run last year. He prepped for this by winning a Grade 1 over course and distance in August. He did duck out at the chute so drawing the rail may be a problem. He's ran super in both starts over this track so maybe a horse for course.     

Todd Pletcher's Mindframe (8) is the same ownership as Fierceness (1). He was fancied to make it a hat-trick of Grade 1's until being bumped and losing Irad Ortiz at Saratoga.

That means in effect, he's not had a race since June. It can be argued at his very best up to nine furlongs. He did finish second over today's distance in The Grade 1 Belmont. Provided he is not dragged through fast fractions by pacemaker Contrary Thinking (4), he could get a trip that sees him go very close.       

This race now lacks the standout three-year-old but the pair that have seen the back of Sovereignty (6) are very talented. Journalism (9) would have won The Triple Crown without Sovereignty (6). He blotted his copybook a little when losing to Fierceness (1) last time.

Those hard races in the spring and summer may have caught up with him. He's been freshened up and be back to his best. Baeza (2) finally ran in a race without Sovereignty (6) and Journalism (9) and won The Pennsylvania Derby. He looks interesting at a double-figure price.     

The Japanese trained Forever Young (5) has ran really well on both his starts Stateside. This years Grade 1 Saudi Cup winner has had a similar preparation as 2024. He's a solid place chance. Antiquarian (10) will be a much bigger price than him. He is a progressive four-year-old who upset Sierra Leone (7) in a Grade 1 at Saratoga last time.       

*You can bet on and check out the latest Breeders' Cup Classic Odds over on betfred.com 

Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...