US Horse Racing Tips: Two to watch on Thursday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, shares his thoughts ahead of Thursday's US Racing at Saratoga and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Check out his US Racing Tips below.

19:21 Saratoga (Race 3) - Smooth Breeze @ SP

Smooth Breeze (6) ran second in the slop at Aqueduct last month when trying the dirt for the first time. His form on turf is even better. Under today’s rider Flavien Prat, he was a four length winner of an allowance conditions event in April. He broke his maiden on this turf track last summer. In truth, he ticks all the boxes with the likely exception of his price.

The selection may be around even money. Any shorter and one or two of his rivals may be squarely priced. A trio of them ran in an allowance conditions event over course and distance last month. Outsource (4) was an upset winner. He showed massive improvement trying the turf for the first time. The nose runner up Leon Blue (5) seemed to run at least as well the way the race was run. His rider set quick fractions. If he can go a little slower, he should have more to hold off the closers.

Sounds Like a Plan (2) was favourite to beat Outsource (4) and Leon Blue (5) last time but ran modestly. His neck third in an open stake here in April in contending form. The blinkers that were dispensed with last time go back on. He could rebound.

He’s more of a danger than River of Time (1) and I'm Due (3). That pair filled the places at a safe distance in a state bred stake last month. Of the two, I'm Due (3) has the better form over a mile.

22:16 Horseshoe Indianapolis (Race 7) - Air Up There @ SP

Rockin Rocio (9) is likely to be a clear-cut favourite for this. She made an encouraging career debut when fourth in a maiden here last month. The winner and third had good form going into that race and the final time was quick. Vortex Express (4) finished a length or so in front of her. She had the benefit of four previous runs and a pipe opener prior to that. Although she deserves credit for a career best effort, Rockin Rocio (9) is likely to turn the tables. Her trainer has a fine record with second time starters.

No Self Control (8) came back to from with a fine second in an open maiden here last month. In the process, she split two well touted debutantes. She has to be reckoned with making the subtle but significant class drop into the state bred ranks.

So too do a couple of the first time starters. Theoretically (2) goes for a capable trainer who is a rare visitor to Indiana.

The Kentucky invader is well worth considering if the market speaks in her favour. However preference is for Air Up There (3). She has been working really well for her debut. Her jockey booking doesn’t look that inspiring but Andres Ulloa is one from four with newcomers for her trainer at this meet.

Kippy Too (12) didn’t build on encouraging debut third second time out. She encountered a ton of trouble so that run can be ignored. She’s a place chance at least.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...