US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s six from Saratoga for Saturday

There's another good card at Saratoga that our US horse racing tipster Paul Quigley has focused on for this preview of Saturday's action from across the pond.

Read on for his US Horse Racing Tips for Saturday, June 7.

There is a fantastic card at Saratoga on Saturday.

The highlight is The Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. That sees a rematch of the one, two and three from The Kentucky Derby. It is a race I found it difficult to make a selection with any great confidence.

I just thought Baeza as the third choice in the betting may be the right play. My ‘working out’ is below along with some ideas on the brilliant undercard.

The one possible issue is there is plenty of rain forecast. My guess is as this is the last day of graded stakes racing here until late July, the turf races will run as carded. It could mean some kind of non firm footing on the grass and an off track on the dirt.

20:17 Saratoga (Race 8) - Just a Touch @ SP

Only a small field entered but there are four of the top older dirt horses in training in this line up. Fierceness (1) was one of top three-year-olds last term. He ran super in defeat the way the race was In The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Looking at his comeback win at Churchill, he looks at least as good. He has plenty of natural speed so cutting back to a mile shouldn’t be an issue.

At face value, it could be the undoing of 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner White Abarrio (2) who has lost twice in this race before. Last year, he ran too bad to be true. He’s back at to his best with a dominant victory in The Grade 1 Pegasus at Gulfstream. He has been working super which with him is often a sign of a big effort coming.

Raging Torrent (5) transferred his top class Grade 1 winning form from California to a Group 2 at Meydan in April. The positives are Frankie Dettori is likely to have him racing within himself on the lead.

The slight worry is many US based horses are slow to find their form when they return from Dubai. He has a shot in here. So too does Just a Touch (4). The one time Kentucky Derby hopeful has had two confidence boosting victories against overmatched rivals this year.

He meets a horse of a different colour here but may be up to the task. In a race where it may be 6/1 or bigger bar two, he may be worth a small interest.

21:08 Saratoga (Race 9) - Ag Bullet @ SP

The Godolphin owned Think Big (2) has been a revelation since switched to the turf. He is four-for-four including back to back Grade 2 victories this year. The four year old sits off the pacesetters and so far has come with a decisive late run in deep stretch. His jockey Ben Curtis knows him well and today’s distance of five-and-a-half furlongs suits him. He ticks all the boxes with the possible exception of his price.

Most of this field can only beat Think Big (2) if he runs below form or has a troubled trip. One exception is Ag Bullet (9), a mare taking on the boys.

She hadn’t lost in a turf sprint until going down by a neck at The Breeders’ Cup. If she hadn’t been badly beaten on her comeback, she may be challenging Think Big (2) for favouritism. She did have to be steadied that day and is now ridden by Flavien Prat. She’s taken to rebound at about 3/1.

The rest of this field need a few things to go their way to get more than a minor a award. My Boy Prince (4) is a little interesting. She beat Bold Journey (7) and Alogon (8) in a stake over six furlongs at Aqueduct last month.

He is unexposed in sprints and may be capable of better. Arzak (5) and Our Shot (3) have the back form to contend but have questions to answer. Arzak (5) ran poorly behind Think Big (2) in April. It was his seasonal return.

He faced a stiff task when second in this race last year. Our Shot (3) is another well beaten by the favourite this term. He did come alive at Saratoga last summer. The horse for course is interesting at a price.

Coppola (10) may get loose on the lead here. He is better at five furlongs but may get brave if facing no pace pressure. The hat-trick seeking Extendo (1) faces much tougher competition to that he was beating in Florida.

21:47 Saratoga (Race 10) - Flying Mohawk @ SP

Zulu Kingdom (1) figures to be a short priced favourite. He has won four times since breaking his maiden at Saint Cloud on debut. His best effort was his latest. He had Mi Bago (7) back in fourth when winning a Grade 1 on The Kentucky undercard.

The rail drawn runner has tactical speed so can sit handy behind the likes of old rival Mi Bago (7). His run in France and last time at Churchill shows he can handle rain softened turf. It is hard to argue with anyone who sides with him even at likely skinny odds.

Softish ground may be against Flying Mohawk (4). He did finish well behind Zulu Kingdom (1) in a Grade 2 on yielding as a two-year-old. He is a much better horse now so it may not have been the surface that was his undoing.

His best effort came when second in a Grade 3 on Tapeta at Turfway. He is a two-time winner on the grass. In the hope he is a good price after floundering in the slop in The Kentucky Derby, he gets the vote.

States' Rights (3) is progressing but did finish two lengths behind Flying Mohawk (4) in January. A. P. Kid (2) is interesting. He broke his maiden second time out and first time on turf. The second Golden Channel (9) and Thirteen Colonies (10) and one other runner franked the form by winning next time.

22:28 Saratoga (Race 11) - Gate to Wire @ SP

This is by far the most competitive of The Grade 1’s on the card. Some of these cut back in distance after being on Triple Crown trail. Citizen Bull (5) and Neoequos (9) did make The Kentucky Derby and were well beaten.

Both were used up on the speed and will be suited by shorter. The best effort of Neoequos (9) was running third to subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty. Citizen Bull (5) is dual Grade 1 winner including The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. As well as him, Bob Baffert has Madaket Road (2) entered. He couldn’t reel in Macho Music (3) in a Grade 2 on Kentucky Derby day. Blinkers go on now.

His old rival Macho Music (3) is very dangerous if he makes the lead on his own.

Chancer McPatrick (10) looked the top juvenile when winning back to back Grade 1’s at here and at Aqueduct last autumn. The worry with him was his strong late kick wouldn’t be as effective in longer races where the early fractions were less frenetic.

That was the case. Now Chad Brown cuts him back to an elongated sprint. He is likely to get speed to chase down and is back at a track he is two for two on. At very least, he is worth a saver.

Patch Adams (4) is another who has done his best work in one turn races. He got back on track winning a deep race for the level over six-and-a-half furlongs at Churchill last month. He is one for the shortlist. At prices, the second behind him Big Truzz (1) is worth considering. He was making a quick turnaround after an eye-catching debut win. If Joel Rosario can work out a trip from the rail, he can outrun his odds.

Gate to Wire (12) finished a well beaten fourth to Macho Music (3) and Madaket Road (2) at Churchill last month. It may be worth forgiving that run. It was a conveyor belt of a track where the pace horses ran one-two all the way.

In his one start over seven furlongs, he won a stake by five lengths. In a race with a very long shortlist, I’d take him at a big price, possibly saving on Chancer McPatrick (10) and Big Truzz (1).

Colloquial (7) and Gunmetal (8) both come off clear cut victories in lesser company in Kentucky. The first named is a player off a wide margin maiden win over a promising colt. The one modest run from Gunmetal (8) came like today when racing without lasix. That may have been a blip.

23:09 Saratoga (Race 12) - Integration @ SP

Quite a few chances here but Spirit of St Louis (6) has at least as strong a claims as any. He had Highway Robber (3) and Integration (2) behind him when winning a Grade 1 on The Kentucky Derby undercard. Jockey Manny Franco has an almost perfect record on him.

Like a few of these, he could be pace compromised if they go slow up front.

Interestingly, Integration (2) ran Spirit of St Louis (6) to a neck in The Grade 1 Pegasus Turf in January. Frankie Dettori received some criticism for his two subsequent rides on him, including last time. Flavien Pratt who was the last jockey to win on him is back aboard. He is playable at a price. So too is Highway Robber (3).

He was progressive until running no race in Dubai in March. His length third to Spirit of St Louis (6) may be better than it looks. He stayed on the chewed up rain softened ground inside in the straight whereas the rest came wide.

Trainer Miguel Clement has three runners entered. His Far Bridge (9) will be likely be second favourite. He has won half his sixteen career races including two Grade 1’s. The six year old has won both his starts since he returned in March.

In the first, he ran down Corruption (8) who was on a soft lead. He is a bit quirky but Joel Rosario has only lost on him once and that was at The Breeders’ Cup! He’s likely to get first run on the deep closers.

His stablemates Deterministic (5) and Carson's Run (4) ran one-two in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct last month. The runner had no chance of catching he winner the way the race was run. Deterministic (5) is dangerous of afforded the same soft lead.

00:04 Saratoga (Race 13) - Baeza @ SP

Only eight runners entered but the good news is The Big Three from The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby are in this line up.

In truth, there are grounds for siding with all of them. Sovereignty (2) was best at Churchill Downs, beating Journalism (7) and Baeza (6) by a length and a half and a neck. Stamina is his strong suit. He is unlikely to get the fast fractions to chase down he did here but has outfinished fields off a slower pace before.

Whereas Sovereignty (2) and Baeza (6) skipped The Grade 1 Preakness, the connections of Journalism (7) ran him back only two weeks after The Kentucky Derby. He only won by half a length but was stopped almost to a standstill early in the straight.

Amazingly, he rallied to catch the runner up who had what looked an unassailable lead. He has more tactical speed than Sovereignty (2). A different pace dynamic may be in his favour.

Sovereignty (2) and Journalism (7) may be both under 2/1. That’s not a reason to look in a different direction. I do think Baeza (6) has upside at around 4 or 5/1. Like Sovereignty (2), he has been kept fresh and targeted for this race.

He’s now twice finished behind Journalism (7). He only made his career debut in December and is improving. His half brother Dornoch won this race over course and distance last year. Flavien Prat is likely to have him sat handier than at Churchill.

That could force the hand of Umberto Rispoli on Journalism (7) and set things up for Sovereignty (2). That said, he may be the play at the odds here.

Early speed is more often than not a dangerous weapon at Saratoga. That brings Rodriguez (3) into the mix.

His best two efforts have come when on the lead. That resulted in a wide margin maiden win over Baeza (6) and an all the way score in The Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He had minor setbacks and had to miss the first two legs of The Triple Crown.

His trainer Bob Baffert is no stranger to success in this race. Ten furlongs could be a bit far but he could get very brave if on the lead on his own. The potential fly in the ointment to him is the presence of the speedy Crudo (5) in this line up. He set decent fractions when winning a stake at Pimlico last month.

The former Irish trained Hill Road (1) has ran well in all his three starts on dirt Stateside. He had training issues early in the year but is making up for lost time. At Aqueduct last month, he outfinished his rivals in a traditional Grade 3 prep for this race. As things stand, he looks a cut below the favourites. He may improve especially with another furlong to run.

Heart of Honor (8) was one paced when behind Journalism (7) In The Preakness Stakes.

Click the links for the latest Horse Racing Odds and Today's US Racing Odds

Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...