US Horse Racing Tips: Four picks from across the pond on Saturday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back on Saturday with more of his US Racing Tips.

You can check out his four selections below.

22:38 Saratoga (Race 10) - Think Big @ SP

This is an intriguing race in terms of class and pace. Win for the Money (8) and Mountain Bear (6) fit into the first named category. The career best effort for Win for the Money (8) came in last year’s Grade 1 Woodbine Mile. He hasn’t ran as well since but does face a softer field than he did last time out at Gulfstream in January.

Like Win for the Money (8), Mountain Bear (6) is a far from easy read. He ran third to a pair of top class horses in a Grade 1 at Keeneland last October. His first run for Wes Ward was a tad disappointing although hardly awful. He ran second to Nantasket Beach (5) in a conditions event at Churchill. Maybe he needed the run. If so, the former Aidan O’Brien trained colt can win this. The runner he beat him last time Nantasket Beach (5) is one time cheap claimer who keeps defying the odds and the class rises.

Donegal Momentum (4) is much improved. He wired Intellect (2) in a Grade 3 field over course and distance last month. Without question, he was massively advantaged on a soft lead that day. Looking at the race shape here, he may do so again. That may mean the runner up, the former French trained Intellect (2) may struggle to reverse the form. He ran an eye-catching race, finishing well from the rear. If Flavien Prat can keep him closer, the result may be different.

Arzak (7) and THINK BIG (3) have fine form at sprint distances. The pair ran in the same Grade 1 over five and a half furlongs here last month. Arzak (7) ran the better, finishing fourth. That said, Think Big (3) may be the one more likely to transfer his form over a mile. The dual Grade 2 winner did start slowly last time. With a cleaner break, he may be positioned just behind likely leader Donegal Momentum (4). He’s the play at the likely odds.

Neat (1) is a possible upsetter. He’s had troubled trips in his last two starts. He’s reunited with Junior Alvarado. He was aboard when he won a Grade 2 over course and distance last summer.

22:55 Horseshoe Indianapolis (Race 11) - Clicquot @ SP

There are only six fillies entered. One of the likely market leaders Heavenly Sunset (5) is also entered for a stake at Prairie Meadows. That has a look of winnable race for her with a slightly bigger purse. If she runs there, she will avoid a re-match with CLICQUOT (2).

The pair ran one-two in a conditions event at Churchill in May where the last named came out on top. Heavenly Sunset (5) did set a quick tempo and was not afforded an easy lead. It would be a hint that connections think they can turn the tables if they choose this race. Clicquot (2) is an improving filly who handled the step up to today’s well.

If Heavenly Sunset (5) does scratch, Clicquot (2) will likely be odds on and then some. Backers have a choice of taking a short odds, playing the forecast or taking a shot with a

price. Goldeneye Magic (6) could be a playable alternative at a decent number. She took her form to a new level when upsetting a stakes field at Thistledown a fortnight ago. That race over nine furlongs was her first try beyond six. She may not get the respect she deserves going for a low profile trainer. Maybe Top (4) can improve making the same sprint to route move. She has won two of her last three starts locally.

Deloraine (3) has been placed at a safe distance in her last three runs. All were stakes, the last two graded events. She has ran into some quality fillies in that run. She’s hard to endorse as a win candidate but is very logical for the forecast if Clicquot (2) is odds on. In terms of form, Sturgeon Moon (1) has achieved less. She progressed during her juvenile season, facing a tough task on her final start. The rail drawn runner has been working really well for her belated three year old debut. It may be at tough task to beat Clicquot (2) and Heavenly Sunset (5). It will be no surprise if she ran second if the last named is a non runner.

23:13 Saratoga (Race 11) - Totally Justified @ SP

There are no European entrants. That and the presence of the streaking Nitrogen (7) has made this a smaller field than normal. There is some quality in this line up so Nitrogen (7) will be have to be at her best to make it a six timer. She faced a simple task last time in the slop as that Grade 3 was rained off the turf. Prior to that, she won four straight stakes on the grass. In doing so, she beat fillies that have gone on to win graded stakes. She has never raced beyond an extended mile but runs as if nine furlongs will not be a problem.

The late running Fionn (5) was beaten three plus lengths by Nitrogen (7) in a Grade 2 at Keeneland in April. She paid a compliment to the filly that beat her when winning a Grade 3 at Churchill next time. Without question, pace to chase down suited her that day. The way the race was run, the half a length runner up TOTALLY JUSTIFIED (3) ran as least as well. She sat close to a very fast pace and did well to stick around so well. At the prices, she has upside for the forecast at least.

Chad Brown has won this race five times. His pair have likely been trained with this race in mind. The duo ran against each other last time out in April. In that Aqueduct stake, Opulent Restraint (2) and Virgin Colada (4) ran second and third. The first named seemed to have no excuses on a soft lead. She looks the type to make her own racing luck. Her stablemate Virgin Colada (4) would be seen to best effect with speed to chase down.

Warming (1) has ran well in all her three career starts. She did well to win against the race flow at Delaware last month. The rail drawn runner is unexposed in routes. She’s not out of this but maybe May Day Ready (6) is more of a possible upsetter. It was a surprise connections took their chances against Nitrogen (7) on her comeback as she’s never raced on any type of dirt footing. Her unbeaten run as a two year old came when second to Lake Victoria at The Breeders’ Cup. There she finished a length ahead of Nitrogen (7). Admittedly her old rival has improved since. She may have done too and that comeback run in the slop was not the race to show it.

23:33 Horseshoe Indianapolis (Race 12) - Big Truzz @ SP

This is an interesting renewal. A trio of these were well beaten in The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. It would be unwise to hold that against them, especially as they got far from clean trips. Publisher (1) hasn’t raced since. He has the unenviable tag of ‘the best maiden in training. He’s swapped decisions with another Kentucky Derby also-ran Coal Battle (3) in graded stakes at Oaklawn prior to that. Coal Battle (3) has bounced back to form at Churchill since running third to a pair of quality three year olds. He’s a big player for the forecast at least.

Chunk of Gold (5) has form either side of The Kentucky Derby which makes him a contender. Two runner up tries in graded stakes at The Fair Grounds and a second in a Grade 3 at Thistledown. The last run was only a fortnight ago. He ran well the way the race was run, sat of the speed that held well that day. Blinkers first time may keep him closer to the pace.

Instant Replay (9) finished half a length behind Chunk of Gold (5) at The Fair Grounds in March. Brad Cox has adopted the pot hunting approach since, taking two uncompetitive stakes with big purses. He stacks up well with the best of these but his trainer’s runners are often overbet here.

BIG TRUZZ (7) is also entered in a stake at Prairie Meadows. He is interesting if he takes his chances here. He’s only had three starts, all up to seven furlongs. He was a good third in a deep Grade 1 at Saratoga last month. Based on pedigree, he should handle this distance. He could add to the speed mix along with Master Controller (2) and Tip Top Thomas (6).

The first-named ran a big speed figure when breaking his maiden on his three year old debut. Tip Top Thomas (6) was a Grade 1 runner up at two. He got back on track when winning a conditions event at Aqueduct in May. If Big Truzz (7) is scratched, the likely race flow switches back in his favour.

Click the links for the latest Horse Racing Odds and Today's US Racing Odds

Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...