US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s Grade 3 trio from Churchill Downs on Saturday

There's Graded action - plus the small matter of 2024 Kentucky Derby hero Mystik Dan making an appearance - at Churchill Downs on Saturday, and our US horse racing tipster Paul Quigley is on-hand with more Stateside selections.

His picks for the meeting in South Louisville all come in Grade 3 contests.

20:18 Churchill Downs (Race 6) - Happy Is A Choice @ SP

Skelly (6) has looked the leading dirt sprinter in America for some time now. His only blemish was in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Before and after, he has been first or second in numerous stakes.

He's looked as good as ever in two starts since Del Mar. At Oaklawn at the start of the month, he had Durante (2) back in third when winning a stake by 10 lengths in a super fast time. The six-year-old is the runner to beat.

There are a couple of worries at his likely short price, though. He faces competition for the lead and his trainer Steve Asmussen is a having a lean Churchill meet, to put it mildly.

The new contender to the sprinting throne is World Record (7). He won three times in 2024 including a Grade 2 at Saratoga. Judging by his comeback win, his four-year-old season may be even better.

He was a clear-cut winner of a minor event here in a really quick time. Drawn outside should give jockey Flavien Prat tactical options. He does make his second start back only thirty days after his comeback win. He has worked well since then.

Champlin (1) set fast fractions when a fine second in a stake over course and distance at the start of the month. He adds to the speed mix. In theory, so does Giant Mischief (3). He set the pace before fading in a deep Grade 1 over seven furlongs on Kentucky Derby. The cut back in distance will suit. He has sat just off the pacesetters and won a stake in the past. He could get a nice trip and is one to consider at a price.

So too is HAPPY IS A CHOICE (4). He was bumped at the break when finishing a couple of lengths behind Champlin last time. He has performed best at Churchill in the past - including when running down Skelly in a stake last September. Maybe take him at a price and to be second in forecasts with the favourites.

22:27 Churchill Downs (Race 10) - Antiquarian @ SP

This is a fascinating and competitive renewal. There are runners with Grade 1 form and ones that have run well recently against top-class horses.

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (4) hasn't won since that big day in the sun. He did signal return to his best when nosed out in a stake at Oaklawn earlier this month, though. The winner Saudi Crown is a hard horse to beat when on his game.

Most Wanted (7) and Hall of Fame (6) filled the places when Fierceness broke the track record in a Grade 2 here on Kentucky Derby weekend. Most Wanted did have it easy on the front and there's a chance he may do so again. Hall of Fame has now run two fine races in defeat since winning at Grade 3 at The Fair Grounds in February. He and old rival Most Wanted have both run their best races here at Churchill Downs.

Banishing (8) has fired in all nine starts since he returned last October. He found seven furlongs a tad sharp when beaten a neck in a Grade 1 here on Kentucky Derby. Prior that, he was runner-up to an in-form older horse over today’s distance in a Grade 2 at Oaklawn.

Alexander Helios (2) ran well below his best that day. He is better judged on his Grade 3 victory over Banishing prior to that.  The hat-trick seeking Tennessee Lamb (10) won a Grade 3 at Keeneland last month. He adds depth to this race.

Maybe Post Time (9) and ANTIQUARIAN (3) are bigger threats. Post Time is a multiple stakes winner, including a Grade 3 success. The five-year-old was a closing second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He ran a big speed figure when slamming overmatched rivals at Laurel on his comeback.

Antiquarian also faced a pretty simple task on his return. He had been absent since running in last year’s Belmont Stakes in June. Prior to that, he looked a three-year-old of massive promise when winning a Grade 3 at Aqueduct. Unlike most of this field, his best races may be ahead of him. He has to improve but may do as a four-year-old. Maybe take him at a price.

22:58 Churchill Downs (Race 11) - Classic Q @ SP

This is a competitive renewal, featuring a couple of uncertainties. Will it be run on rain-sodden ground, and how fast will the early fractions be?

Lush Lips (7) may revert to front-running tactics. She pulled hard when second to a class act in a Grade 2 here on Kentucky Oaks day. Prior to that, she ran the same filly close when in the lead in a Grade 3 at Tampa.

She will be a bigger price than her stablemate Hereforagoodtime (2). That one is improving, making it back-to-back victories in a conditions event here earlier this month.

Trainer Mark Casse has a strong hand in the three-year-old turf fillies division. He has a prime contender in CLASSIC Q (5).

She ran well in a pair of stakes before making the most of the class relief here last month. Under today’s rider Jose Ortiz, she drew off to win by almost five lengths. She did get fast fractions to chase down. but is progressing with racing.

Some pace to chase down will suit her and Fionn (8). That filly was on a four-timer before falling short in a Grade 2 here. Lush Lips (7) finished a neck behind her. Like Classic Q, she shapes as if the step up to nine furlongs will suit.

Trainer ‘Rusty’ Arnold is one of a trio of trainers who are double-handed here. His Totally Justified (6) was far from disgraced when behind no other than Irish 1000 Guineas heroine Lake Victoria at the Breeders’ Cup. She may have been a short horse when behind Fionn and Lush Lips in that local Grade 2. She may be a different proposition second time back.

Her stablemate Fixin to Bee (4) is progressive. She beat Golden Sunshine (10) in a conditions event at Keeneland last month.

The best chance of Deloraine (11) winning may be if this race is switched to the dirt. She has form on turf but has four lengths to find with Lush Lips from a Grade 3 at Tampa.

Mechaya (9) is proven on turf. She caught the eye when third in a Grade 3 sprint on her first start of the year. She’s a possible to upset the odds.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...