US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s provides six to consider for Saturday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is spoiling us on Saturday as he provides us with six of his best bets from across the pond. 

Check out his US Racing Tips below which come from Kentucky Downs and Saratoga.

21:14 Kentucky Downs (Race 8) - Ag Bullet @ SP (6) and Oujda (7) EW @ SP

Ag Bullet (6) is the deserving favourite here. She beat the boys in a Grade 1 at Saratoga in June. The five year old has been kept fresh for this $2,000,000 stake. She won this race last year by open lengths. That day she made all but can run her race sat off the pace. Her recent form is better than Kehoe Beach (11). In fairness, Wes Ward’s filly went a big quick in a Grade 2 over seven furlongs last time. She’s another with a convincing victory in her one start at Kentucky Downs.

Zeitlos (2) and Time to Dazzle (10) filled the places behind arguably the second best female turf sprinter Stateside last time. Zeitlos (2) may have won if she gaps had come at the right time. Time to Dazzle (10) has little to find with her. She ran well in a stake over course and distance last September. Simply in Front (12) was the winner of that race. She’s looked at least as good this term. She’s a solid place chance.

Oujda (7) has never raced here before. She got really good for Johnny Murtagh last October winning back to back stakes. New connections got a win in a stake at Woodbine on her North American debut. This race is far tougher but she may improve bearing in mind how she rounded out 2024.

21:52 Kentucky Downs (Race 9) - Khaadem (6) @ SP

A couple of the market leaders last raced away from North America. Howard Wolowitz (2)hasn’t raced since a below par effort in Saudi Arabia in February. He has been working like gangbusters for his comeback. In his only start here, he won a stake last September.Khaadem (6) ran second in this race last year. He was a well held second but the winner was by far the top American turf sprinter at the time. A delayed start to this year’s campaign has meant Charlie Hills can bring him over fresh. He should go well under Frankie Dettori.

Arrest Me Red (7) is a seven year old but still retains plenty of ability. He missed by a neck in a stake at Churchill in June and won his last start over this course. He’s a possibility along with the lone gal taking on the boys, Pipsy (10). She beat a top female sprinter in a Grade 2 at Saratoga two starts back. The four year old will be a factor from the outset.

Implementation (1) has won his last two starts, both on dirt. He did win on turf here last September so the surface switch is not an issue.

22:02 Saratoga (Race 10) - Bellezza (8) @ SP

A trio of these ran in a Grade 2 over a mile and a half here last month. La Mehana (4) ran freakishly well, winning by almost nine lengths. That race was run in a bog by Stateside standards. There is a chance she was well suited by the underfoot conditions and her rivals not so. She has form on a sound surface that suggests she can win this. Maybe not that would make her a worthy short priced favourite.

Bellezza (8) and Long Ago (3) finished behind La Mehana (4) last time. Both may get a lot closer this time. Bellezza (8) may be better judged on two stakes performances before that. The former Ger Lyons trained filly may the play at the odds. Long Ago (3) has a chance off a close third in a stake on firm turf at Churchill in June.

Being a Grade 1 winner in May, Be Your Best (7) is the class of this race. She set decent fractions and scored by almost three lengths in that Santa Anita contest. With other speed in the race, her rider decided to stalk in The Grade 2 Beverly D last time. She didn’t look as effective there, fighting her rider under restraint. With the right trip, she is very dangerous. She will likely get the jump on the likes of La Mehana (4) and Bellezza (8).

Marksman Queen (1) is on a stakes hat-trick. She did get a good and positive ride when beating a promising filly in a Grade 3 at Delaware last month. Amber Cascade (2) has less on her C.V. She was claimed by Mike Maker in May. The five year old running really wellfirst time for him when narrowly missing in a stake at Ellis Park. Her trainer has a great knack of improving horses when they step up to longer distances. She is a possible upsetter now getting more ground.

22:38 Saratoga (Race 11) - Tommy Jo (8) @ SP

The market is likely to be dominated by a stakes winner and a promising debut scorer. In terms of achievement so far, the clear standard setter is Mythical (4). She made it back to back stakes victories when winning a Grade 3 here earlier this month. She did it well, wiring Meringue (2) by three lengths. The extra half furlong shouldn’t be an issue. She may be pressed for the lead and that could soften her up late on. The filly to catch and beat.

Tommy Jo (8) is one of a few once-raced fillies in here. She justified strong support when winning a maiden here last month. The winning margin was almost four lengths and the runner up franked the form when graduating next time. Her pedigree and running style suggests she will improve now stepping up to seven furlongs. Her winning jockey John Velasquez opts to go to Del Mar to ride Fierceness in a Grade 1. Kenderick Carmouche is more than an adequate replacement.

Ornellaia (1) came from a long way back to beat Steer Clear (7) at first asking. She looks nothing but a stayer. More ground and pace to chase down will suit her. Her old rival Steer Clear (7) running here may be key to the chances of her and Tommy Jo (8). She may be a filly capable of keeping Mythical (4) honest up front. Likewise pace to chase down will suit Meringue (2) and Churchill stakes winner Percy's Bar (5).

22:46 Kentucky Downs (Race 10) - Hill Road (1) @ SP

Wimbledon Hawkeye (12) is just short of top class over here. Based on his recent form, he very capable of beating the home based horses. He finished second in back to back graded stakes last month. Both times he an into a promising runner. The winner of the race at Newmarket came back to win The Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga. If Frankie Dettori reads the race right, riding him forwardly like he was in The Dante Stakes could pay dividends.

Of the locals, Test Score (2) has the best form. He came close to winning back to back Grade 1’s at Saratoga. Jockey Manny Franco knows him very well. He may improve for getting more ground. He’s very solid. That can’t be said about Final Gambit (11) who finished behind him in those stakes. He’s talented but can get far behind and have too much to in the straight. This longer distance will suit.

A trio that have been taking on the best three year olds on dirt are of interest here. Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman (8) is one of them. His late running style may be suited to the switch to turf. He’s bred to handle the surface. So too is Grade 1 Blue Grass winner Burnham Square (5) whose dam only ever raced on the grass. Take out losses to the likes of class acts Sovereignty and Journalism and his form looks very decent. Hill Road (1) has not been competitive with Sovereignty in his last two starts. He has some turf experience, breaking his maiden at Leopardstown on debut. Like a few of these, he can finish strongly if he gets pace to chase down. Wimbledon Hawkeye (12) and Test Score (2) are likely to take the most money here. He may offer a little bit of value.

The only runner who has ever raced here is Tiztastic (7). He is two for two here. As this is a unique track, that counts for something.

23:25 Kentucky Downs (Race 11) - Special Wan (2) @ SP

The shippers from Europe have a decent chance here with Cheshire Dancer (3) and Lady Ilze (6). The Frankie Dettori ridden Cheshire Dancer (3) is a progressive four year old. Shewon a Group 3 at Ascot last month. Lady Ilze (6) ran well in the face of a tough task in The Group 1 Falmouth Stakes last month. The German 1,000 Guineas winner proved last time she can handle fast ground.

The former Irish trained Special Wan (2) has ran big in both starts this term. She beat In Our Time (1) in a Group 3 at Gulfstream in March. Her last start in June was even better. She ran third to a pair of top class Chad Brown trained runners in a Grade 1 at Saratoga. It is likely she has been kept fresh for this stake with a massive purse. She won on her only previous visit to Kentucky Downs. The pick.

Segesta (5) finished behind the selection at Saratoga. She franked the form of that race by beating Sacred Wish (7) in a Grade 3 at Monmouth. She’s a place chance at least. So too is Pin Up Betty (10). She beat Charlene's Dream (9) and Movin' On Up (11) in a Grade 3 at Churchill in June. Her old rival Charlene's Dream (9) is best when on the lead going her own pace. That’s what happened when she won The Grade 2 Beverly D earlier this month.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...