US Horse Racing Tips: Five selections from Churchill Downs on Saturday

Our Stateside tipster Paul Quigley is back with his best bets from across the pond on Saturday.

His latest round of US horse racing tips takes him to Churchill Downs, with five up for consideration.

21:25 Churchill Downs (Race 8) - Lush Lips @ 9/5

It will be odds on that either Lush Lips (5) and Vixen (6) will win this. The pair filled the places in a Grade 3 here last month. The winner of that race is arguably the best turf filly of her generation at present.

Only a nose separated the pair so it’s hard to side with one over the other. One time frontrunner Lush Lips (5) showed a new dimension to her game last time, sitting off the pace. The slight cut back in distance won’t be an issue. It shouldn’t be for Vixen (6) who won a Grade 3 over a mile in March.

Favor to You (8) is interesting stepping up from six furlongs. She won a maiden at Santa Anita and followed up with a conditions race victory. More ground should suit based on her pedigree. She adds depth to this race along with Princess Attitude (4). She comes off a career best when third in a stake at Pimlico last month.

The pair of last time out maiden breakers don’t look out of place in this line up. Something Stronger (2) ran the bigger speed figure but has to prove her stamina. Love You Anyway (3) was still green when behind Lush Lips (5) at Tampa. She’s improving, graduating nicely last time.

Fixin to Bee (1) may need pace to chase down to reverse the form with Vixen (6) from February.

21:58 Churchill Downs (Race 9) - Three Technique @ 10/1

This may be as simple as the streaking Booth (3) going to the front early and staying there. He made it a stakes four timer when winning a Grade 3 at Pimlico last month. The four-year-old looks a little faster than this field based on speed figures.

He may not get it easy on the front end as Roll On Big Joe (4) also has early foot. The Grade 3 winner prepped for this race by taking a minor event over course and distance last month. The form of that race was given a boost when the third Durante (8) took a graded stake next time. Otto the Conqueror (5) ran below form behind him. He may be set for his best on his third run after a long absence.

Dr. Venkman (1) won a Grade 2 over an extended mile last summer. He has form over extended sprint distances to suggest he can go well here. He’d been away nine months when second to a talented runner in a Grade 3 at Santa Anita on his comeback.

His trainer has a really good record second time back after a lay off. He plots to get a nice trip sat off  contested early fractions. The rail drawn runner may be worth siding with.

Three Technique (2) has been absent since facing a tough task in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. His best effort came when taking a Grade 3 here last September.

22:31 Churchill Downs (Race 10) - Talking Candy @ 8/1

A quartet of these ran a Grade 3 here over course and distance on 31 May. Mercante (4) beat Brilliant Berti (7) by a neck with Lagynos (2) and Event Detail (5) close up in third and fourth. A case can be made for all four in what looks a wide open renewal. Mercante (4) ran better when going close in a Grade 1 here prior to that.

Taking Candy (6) finished behind him but did meet trouble early on. He may be better judged on a Grade 3 victory at The Fair Grounds in February. He’s a progressive type who may be worth a small interest at a price.

Mi Hermano Ramon (3) is a talented California based runner. He lost narrowly in a Grade 1 at Santa Anita last month. The five year old rarely races out of his home state. He ran with great credit the last time he did.

That trip produced a good fourth in a Grade 1 at Gulfstream. He is definitely good enough to win this. So too is Fort Washington (8). He finished just behind Mi Hermano Ramon (3) in Florida in January. Since then, he’s won back to back Grade 3’s.

23:03 Churchill Downs (Race 11) - First Mission @ 4/1

The two most talented runners in here are Sierra Leone (4) and Mindframe (2). Sierra Leone (4) has the more questions to answer. A repeat of his Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic win would be good enough to beat these.

There he got fast fractions to chase down. He did not when turned over at odds on when making his four-year-old debut. The race shape looks far from ideal for the late runner here. He can still win this without question.

So can Mindframe (2) who won a deep and productive Grade 1 over seven furlongs on The Kentucky Derby undercard. As he ran second in The 2024 Grade 1 Belmont over a mile and a quarter, today’s distance should be no problem. He is the runner to fear and may be worth a saver forecast.

Trainer Brad Cox is double handed. His Hit Show (6) won The Group 1 Dubai World Cup in April. His form Stateside is good but his victories were in Grade 2’s and Grade 3’s. The same can be said for his stablemate First Mission (1).

He won a Grade 2 at Oaklawn in April and has been pointed towards this race since. The form of his last victory was given a boost when the third Skippylongstocking (3) won a Grade 2 at Santa Anita next time. He may be the play at the odds if Sierra Leone (4) and Mindframe (2) take the most money.

Last year’s Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (5) got back on track when taking a Grade 3 here last month. He’s a Churchill Downs horse for course so can’t be dismissed.

23:32 Churchill Downs (Race 12) - Flying Mohawk @ 8/1

This is a deep and competitive event. There are two runners that return to the turf after running in The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. Both have victories on today’s footing.

Tiztastic (3) has the better form. The Grade 1 Louisiana Derby winner did win twice on the grass as a juvenile. That includes a stake at Kentucky Downs. Flying Mohawk (2) may offer a bit more value. He’s much improved at three, winning back to back turf events at The Fair Grounds.

Reagan's Wit (1) is improving. He had Soleil Volant (7) back in third when a three length winner of a stake at Pimlico last month. Like a few of these, he would be suited by pace to chase down.

In contrast, Freedom's Not Free (8) can make his own racing luck. He has won back to back stakes at Santa Anita. The chances are he may be loose on the lead. He is dangerous under that scenario. Fellow California invader Giocoso (9) was far from disgraced in a deep Grade 1 on The Kentucky Derby undercard last month.

Minaret Station (5) only had three runs as a juvenile. He’s been absent since upsetting a Grade 2 field at Keeneland at Keeneland last October. He can’t be discounted. Neither can Native Runner (5) and Anegada (10). Only a neck separated them in a well run conditions event here earlier this month.

Siesta Key (4) looks overmatched based on his juvenile old form. He may have improved a ton from two to three. His entry here for top connections suggests that is the case.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...