US Horse Racing Tips: Paul picks out five to follow on Saturday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back to start the weekend and deliver his best bets of the day from across the pond.

Check out his US Racing Tips below, which come from Monmouth Park, Colonial Downs and Saratoga.

20:22 Monmouth Park - Fondly @ SP

Fondly (7) won her first two starts including a stake at Colonial Downs. She spun her wheels in the slop when well beaten in The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Given significant class relief, she got back to winning ways in The Grade 3 Delaware Oaks. She won by three lengths with Paris Lily (4) back in fourth. The runner-up and Paris Lily (4) had solid form going into that race, running one-two in a Grade 2 at Pimlico.

Fondly (7) made all last time but can stalk and run her race. That may be crucial as a few of these have speed. Running Away (5) wired a field in a stake taken off the turf in Indiana in May. Her win at Aqueduct in January was an arguably better effort. She may be gunned for the lead. So too could Naked Eye (1). She lost by a neck to Ruth (2) in an allowance conditions event earlier this month.

Pink Ruby (6) who ran well in a stake at Aqueduct last month may add to the speed mix. Rosieontheriver (3) looks in a bit deep but at least she can pass horses late on.

21:03 Colonial Downs - Alani @ SP

Trainer Rodolphe Brisset is double handed. It will be interesting to see if both gals take their chances. His Top Gun Girl (9) is better known as a turf runner but has form on dirt. She has been far from disgraced in better races in Kentucky since joining her trainer. Ben Curtis now takes the ride who is demand at this track. Her stablemate Bourbon Breeze (6) has improved since being claimed in February. She comes off a good second in Churchill and a decent effort in a stake at Prairie Meadows.

Ms. Bucchero (5) looks the runner to catch. She won back to back stakes at Laurel either side of New Year. The speedster was ran down in another stake at Laurel on her comeback.

She will be returning only six days later so her participation must be in doubt. If she is scratched, who makes the lead is in question. Alani (7) has the speed to stay close. She ran well after being bumped at the start in a stake at Laurel last month. She is best judged on a four length score over Happy Clouds (1) in April.

21:35 Colonial Downs - Patriot Spirit @ SP

Patriot Spirit (7) gets the vote here. Look only at his races over one turn and he has a fine CV. He’s been freshened up since a narrow loss in a stake at Churchill in May. The four year old shipped here a few weeks ago, probably to be pointed to this race. He’s two-for-two at Colonial Downs. In his last victory, he had Bouncer (2) well back in third. Michael Sanchez rides him for the first time since then.

The selection will have to be on his game as some of his rivals have strong form. Worcester (8) was a non factor in a swiftly run Grade 3 at Aqueduct in May. Prior to that, he won a stake over today’s distance at Laurel. His trainer has a fine record with lay off runners. He’s a likely threat from just off the pace. Likewise Inveigled (1).

He narrowly missed over an extended mile at Laurel last month. The last time he ran over today’s distance, he ran second to a next time out winner in a stake at Gulfstream.

Bouncer (2) will be a likely forward factor. He ran his best race of the year when winning a conditions event at Laurel last month. His lost to Patriot Spirit (7) here last September was his first in three tries over this dirt track. He has a stalking gear in him but his jockey’s hand may be forced drawn inside Celtic Contender (5). He improved second time back to be a  length runner up in a stake at Laurel.

22:04 Saratoga - Daisy Flyer @ SP

Key to the outcome here is a stake run over a mile here at the start of the month. Classic Q (5) wired the field beating stablemates Play With Fire (10) and Lavender Disaster (4). The winner set decent fractions.

There is a good chance she will males the front again without too much pressure. If that happens, she has a decent chance of doubling up. There are scenarios where the form is reversed. Play With Fire (10) and Lavender Disaster (4) are both improving. They represent Chad Brown who farms these stakes on turf for fillies and mares at this Saratoga meet.

Pretty Lavish (2) ran well to be a length second to Play With Fire (10) in a stake at Pimlico in May. Less so in another stake at Monmouth last month. Princess Attitude (6) ran third in that Pimlico stake. She has ran another solid race at Churchill. Aterradora (8) has arguably even better form. She ran fourth in a deep Grade 3 at Churchill in May. Classic Q (5) went too fast on the front end that day. The winner came back to win a Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.

Daisy Flyer (3) is a tough read but is worth considering at a big price. She left her three runs as a juvenile behind on her comeback. At Gulfstream in March, she lost by a neck with Classic Q (5) just behind her. Lack of race since then is a worry. The fact that her connections want to take a shot in this graded stake is a hint of a big run.

22:41 Saratoga - Baeza @ SP

This Grade 2 sees the return to action of Sovereignty (5). He is without question the best three-year-old in America. A victory in The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby over Journalism and an even more emphatic one over him in The Belmont Stakes is testament to that. He has already beaten all but one of his rivals. At face value, he faces a simple task. He is very likely to outfinish his rivals.

The backers of Sovereignty (5) will have to accept odds on and then some. There are two slight worries. His best efforts have come over slightly further and with speed to chase down. The other is this is a prep for The Grade 1 Travers in a few week’s time. That may mean his trainer Bill Mott has left something to work on.

If Sovereignty (5) is to be beaten, it may be as runner gets the jump on him. If the jockey on Mo Plex (3) wants the lead, he gets it. The New York bred is an overachiever, winning The Grade 3 Ohio Derby at Thistledown last month. It will be interesting to see how close Baeza (1) sits to him early. He has twice finished behind Sovereignty (5) but ran at least as well as him in The Kentucky Derby. He has been working really well in California.

The chances are this race is his target unlike Sovereignty (5) who has bigger fish to fry. As the second favourite, he may be worth a small wager.

Stamina is the main asset of Sandman (2) and Hill Road (4). This race doesn’t appear to set up well for the pair. Sandman (2) may show more tactical speed racing in blinkers for the first time.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...