US Horse Racing Tips: Three to follow on Saturday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back with Saturday's US Horse Racing Tips, looking to land three wins from Philadelphia

Check out his three selections below, with the first one starting at 21:35.

21:35 Philadelphia (Race 12) - Retribution each-way @ SP

Barnes (5) is the horse to beat here. The one-time Kentucky Derby ante post favourite coped well with the cut back to seven furlongs last month. In a Grade 1 at Saratoga, he ran a very good third. That was a deep race and a much better field than he faces here. If he repeats that run, he’s a very likely winner. He cuts back another furlong here but he has plenty of tactical speed. In truth, he ticks all the boxes with the possible exception of his price.

Neoequos (10) did run in The Kentucky Derby but faded badly. He’s had a new lease of life since cutting back to one turn. He was a clear-cut winner over Donut God (6) and Fire Pit (8) in a stake at Monmouth in July. Last month, he ran well the way the race was run when second in a $500,000 stake at Charles Town. He’s very solid and probably is the runner likely to benefit if Barnes (5) disappoints. His old rival Donut God (6) has some upside. He blew the start when runner up to him last time. In addition, he had been away since winning his first two starts last year. That includes a stake at Tampa

If this race is form-full, Retribution (1) may only be running for second or even third. He may be worth each way support with a saver forecast Barnes (5) to beat him. He only scraped home in the mud from Fire Pit (8) in a local stakes prep for this. He has better form to his name including a stakes victory on The Preakness undercard. He’s a late runner who should get plenty of speed to chase down.

Mad House (7) has been on a tear at Canterbury Park. He gets a big class test but will ensure if any other runner wants the front, they will have to outsprint him!

22:15 Philadelphia (Race 13) - Clicquot @ SP

Thorpedo Anna won this race at 1/10 last year. Luckily the 2025 renewal is a much more competitive event. The likely front three in the market are no strangers to each other. Scottish Lassie (1) bounced back to form in style at Saratoga. In The Grade 1 CCA Oaks there, he slammed her rivals by fifteen lengths. That is the best line of form in here. She did make the lead very easily. There is likely to be competition for the front here.

La Cara (2) is at her best when setting the pace. Her day in the sun came at Saratoga in June. She took advantage of a speed-favouring track to take The Grade 1 Acorn. Scottish Lassie (1) and Good Cheer (7) both disappointed in that event.

La Cara (2) folded like a cheap suit last month in The Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga. It was a return to form for Good Cheer (7) who ran second. The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner put her odds on failure behind La Cara (2) behind her. Cutting back to an extended mile doesn’t play into her strengths. The likelihood of pace to chase down certainly will do. She and an on song Scottish Lassie (1) seem the most likely winners in here.

A couple of new faces to the Grade 1 level are interesting. Indy Bay (4) won a Grade 2 over seven furlongs at Charles Town last month. If she gets the extra distance, she could be right here. Clicquot (3) is proven over the trip. She won a Grade 3 in Indiana in July. The third came back to win a stake at Ellis Park. She’s progressive, winning all her starts since her debut. She has to take another step forward to beat this field. The way she is working, there may be better to come.

Dry Powder (8) showed her running behind Scottish Lassie (1) wasn’t her when winning a local stakes prep for this. She beat Ourdaydreaminggirl (6) by four lengths. This track is not for every horse so the fact that she has form on it is a positive. She is a place chance.

23:00 Philadelphia (Race 14) - Baeza @ SP

Baeza (8) broke his maiden at Santa Anita in February. Since then, he’s ran with credit in defeat in top races against the best three year olds in America. Take out Sovereignty and Journalism and he would have won The Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Even when dropped from Grade 1 company last time, he ran into Sovereignty in The Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga.

That one length to defeat and The Kentucky Derby third are standout runs. At least in the context of this race. His old rivals are not in today’s line-up so he has a good chance of winning his first Grade 1. He has tactical speed so can sit handy if the early fractions are not as hot as expected.

The biggest dangers on paper to Baeza (8) come out of The Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth. Only a neck separated Gosger (9) and Goal Oriented (6) when the finished close up behind Journalism. Both are lightly raced colts who may be capable of better. Gosger (9) has now narrowly lost twice in Grade 1 company. He has been working well. Bob Bafferrt’s Goal Oriented (6) put his Preakness run behind him. The pair are likely to sit just behind the pacesetters.

Magnitude (3) seems to have only one way to run. He blew away a Grade 2 field at The Fair Grounds but had to miss the Kentucky Derby after a setback. Having got back on track in a stake at Prairie Meadows, he wilted in The Grade 1 Travers. He did run into Sovereignty and did go plenty quick enough on the front end. If Ben Curtis can get him clear and relaxed on the lead, he could wire this field.

Grade 3 Ohio Derby winner Mo Plex (10) seemed to have no excuses when behind Baeza (8) last time. There are others in here that may be more likely to cause an upset. So Sandy (1) came within a head of making it a hat-trick in a stake at Saratoga.

If the earlier races suggest he inside is the place to be, he moves up the pecking order. Big Truzz (7) and David of Athens (4) come off wide margin victories in lesser company at Ellis Park. Both are progressive types. Interestingly, Tyler Gaffalione rode both horses and he sticks with David of Athens (4).

He beat two next time out winners last time. Like Big Truzz (7) he has to prove his stamina but like him, wasn’t exactly stopping over a mile.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...