US Horse Racing Tips: Saturday’s focus is Churchill Downs

Our US Racing expert Paul Quigley is back on Friday to deliver his best bets from across the pond. The day's action is taking him to Churchill Downs for all three selections.

Check out his US Racing Tips for Saturday, June 14 below.

19:45 Churchill Downs (Race 5) - Take Charge Milady @ SP

When a stakes race is placed before the start of the lucrative Pick 6 starts, it normally means an uncompetitive event and a short-priced favourite.

The management may be right as on form Immersive (2) can crush this field. She was unbeaten in four of starts as a juvenile including a trio of Grade 1 victories. Her crowning glory, a least so far in her career was a four-length romp at The Breeders’ Cup.

The knock on her chances is an injury setback that meant she missed all The Kentucky Oaks preps and the big race itself. Her trainer Brad Cox has found a very winnable, non-graded stake for her belated three year old debut. If last year’s juvenile champion is on song, she will win this at odds on.

Immersive (2) is likely to be a very short price. She may be able to beat this field even if not at her best. That said, at least two of her rivals could upstage her if she’s not on her game. One of them us Anna's Promise (3). She ran with credit in The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Prior to that, she ran second to a promising filly in a Grade 2 at Gulfstream.

Take Charge Milady (6) didn’t run as well as Anna's Promise (3) in The Kentucky Oaks but did have a foot issue going into the race. She is better judged on a stakes win at Oaklawn and a Grade 1 runner-up at Keeneland. In the last named, she almost reeled in a filly who got an easy lead. A combination of her at her best and Immersive (2) a little bit undercooked could see her post the upset.

Running Away (5) didn’t run her race when well behind Take Charge Milady (6) at Keeneland. Wes Ward’s filly won stakes either side of that. Crucially for her seems to be the lead on her own. Depending on how Anna's Promise (3), she may be loose. She’s not out of this under that scenario.

Princess Aliyah (1) has been feast or famine this year. A stakes victory at Oaklawn was followed by two-heavy losses. Minnesota Munny (4) meets a much tougher field to the one she beat in Indiana last month.

21:55 Churchill Downs (Race 9) - Single Dot Yaht @ SP

Not This Boy (6) figures to be a short priced favourite. He is a lightly-raced four-year-old who missed a lot of 2024.

In his last start of the year in August, he was beaten a nose by a quality runner in a productive stake at Ellis Park. His comeback here last month was very encouraging. He ran second at today’s level, running if lacking full fitness. His trainer Bill Cowans has a fine record second time back after a long break. He has another half a furlong to travel and tries a two turn race for the first time. That’s the only possible issue with him but he is a solid favourite.

Not This Boy (6) has some speed but is not as fast as Frosted Departure (5) early on. He wired a field over today’s distance at Oaklawn in April. The same frontrunning tactics didn’t pay off here a month later. There he had to go plenty fast enough on the front end. He can go well if the likes of Hold My Bourbon (8) are taken back a little. That four-year-old is now with a dangerous trainer. His last victory came on The Tapeta but he has form on dirt.

If Not This Boy (6) is dragged through fast fractions, there is potential for an upset from a stalker/closer. Dai Vernon (4) is one possibility. He had Winters Lion (3) a couple of lengths back in third when winning a high-end claimer here last month.

It is a positive sign that his new and in form trainer up him in class where he can’t be claimed. The late running Single Dot Yaht (2) is far more chancy but will be a big price. His comeback was awful but he been away over five months. Maybe take him at a big number with a saver forecast for Not This Boy (6) to beat him.

King Russell (1) has a squeak off a four-length victory at Oaklawn in March. Likewise Quality Chic (7) off his second there in a stake in January. He races with blinkers off after two modest efforts.

22:26 Churchill Downs (Race 10) - Highway Robber @ SP

Whatever way you look at, this race goes through Utah Beach (3). He has won back to back Grade 3’s over a mile-and-a-half. In the process, he had half a dozen of this field behind him.

In the latest, he beat Verstappen (9) by a length-and-a-half here last month. Prior to that, he had Anglophile (7) back in third when winning at Keeneland. The slightly shorter distance today should not be his undoing.

Some of the horses that Utah Beach (3) has beaten lately have upside. The Frankie Dettori ridden Verstappen (9) as ridden closer to the pace last time than he was a Keeneland. Cutting back a furlong helps his chances. Rebel Red (4) clipped heels and fell last time. He had a wide trip when fourth to Utah Beach (3) prior to that. He’s in good hands and has the back form to contend. Sugoi (10) lost ground being wide on the turns when fourth to Utah Beach (3) at Keeneland. He gets a gets a jockey switch to Luis Saez and may benefit from more likely aggressively riding tactics.

Trainer Brian Lynch is double handed. His Anglophile (7) finished a close up third to Utah Beach (3) at Keeneland. He followed up that up with a fine second to a top-class runner in a Grade 2 at Aqueduct. He’s a place chance at least. Maybe his stablemate Highway Robber (8) is a little more appealing. He ran third in a Grade 1 here on Kentucky Derby Day, finding the distance a tad short. Last year, he showed progressive form. He won two stakes from a mile and a quarter to a mile-and-a-half. In the second, he had Utah Beach (3) back in third.

These long distance stakes events can often be run at a crawl early. That can mean advantage forwardly ridden runners. Lambeth (6) a stakes winner on dirt in March has the speed to make the lead on his own. He has never raced on turf before. His trainer may have only entered him in case this race is switched to the dirt. If he handles the new footing, he is very dangerous.

Lord Bullingdon (1) won over nine furlongs here last month. He gets a class and stamina test here but may improve for the added distance.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...