US Horse Racing Tips: Paul marks your card for Saturday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, is back with Saturday's US Horse Racing Tips, looking to land wins from Churchill Downs and Woodbine.

Check out his six selections below, one starting at 20:21 (BST), and the last one is at 22:39 (BST).

20:21 Churchill Downs (Race 6) - Our Two Girls @ SP

All of these two-year-old fillies are lightly raced so are likely to have improvement to come. The most accomplished runner Dazzling Dame (6) is the only one who has raced as far as today’s distance. She maintained her unbeaten record when wiring a stakes field at Monmouth last month. At half-way, she had a challengers but drew off in the straight to win by two lengths. She meets some promising fillies here but looks the gal to beat.

Three of these fillies won their only starts to date. Embrace the Moment (7) was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut at Delaware. She wired a field of maidens by a couple of lengths. She’s bred to handle more ground.

That is also the case with Our Two Girls (5). She beat Miss Complicated (2) by two plus lengths first time out at Ellis Park. She has worked well three times since she may improve a ton for that run. Her stablemate Taken by the Wind (3) outfinished a field of maidens at first asking over seven furlongs at Saratoga. She didn’t beat much there but did it by three lengths.

Our Two Girls (5) gets the vote but old rival Miss Complicated (2) is worth considering at a price. She blew the start when second to her and made giant strides from the rear late on. Looking at her pedigree, she should come into her own now stepping up distance.

20:54 Churchill Downs (Race 7) - Royal Spa @ SP

The class dropping Royal Spa (3) looks a worthy short-priced favourite. She beat a few of these in a stake at Laurel and a Grade 3 over course and distance in April and May. There has been no disgrace in her two subsequent efforts. She was second best to 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna here before running into some top older gals in a Grade 1 at Del Mar.

She attended quick fractions last time and paid the price late on. This race plots to be run a little slower. She doesn’t need to lead with her last victory coming from off the pace.

There will be likely a change of riding tactics with Alpine Princess (2). She was reigned back by her jockey in a stake run at a crawl early at Ellis Park last month. Prior to that, her rider put her on the lead and she wired Our Pretty Woman (6) to win a stake in Indiana.

She’s dangerous given the front and only mild pace pressure. Her old rival Our Pretty Woman (6) was coming off a lay off when second best to Alpine Princess (2). That run may set her up to run back to the promise of her three-year-old season.

Regaled (1) is a possible upsetter. She finished ahead of the admittedly conservatively ridden Alpine Princess (2) at Ellis Park last month. The race flow didn’t the late runner. If there is pace to chase down, she could reel these in. Interestingly, she was only a neck away from running down Royal Spa (3) at Laurel in April.

20:54 Woodbine (Race 6) - Wild Desert @ SP / Argos @ SP

The European invaders have won three of the last four running’s of this race. Charlie Appleby trained two of them. He ships over Wild Desert (10) for this. He rebounded after an odds-on defeat to run third in a Group 2 at Newmarket in July.

If he hadn’t been hampered, he may have gone very close. The chances are he’s been kept fresh to point for this race. This is a deep field, so may not go off too short a price. Fellow invader Thesecretadversary (4) will likely be bigger odds. He ended a run of seconds when winning a listed event at Tipperary last month. That form looks a length or two slower than Wild Desert (10) but he does draw better than him.

Five of these ran in a local stakes prep for this over six and a half furlongs. Two Out Hero (5) maintained his unbeaten record. He won by a length and a half from Casson (7) with Argos (1) and Rude Procedure (2) filling the minor places.

The winner has to be respected but with Argos (1) did have a very wide trip. Now drawing the rail, Flavien Prat has a chance of saving some ground.

Marcus J (8), Military Time (9) and Teddy's Rocket (12) all won their only starts to date. The trio ran speed figures that suggest they could be stakes runners.

21:26 Churchill Downs (Race 8) - Vost @ SP

The leader in the clubhouse is clearly Comport (7). He won on debut here in June and has ran really well in a couple of stakes Kentucky since. In the latest, he beat Spice Runner (5) by two lengths over seven furlongs at Ellis Park. His pedigree doesn’t shout out more ground. That said, this one turn mile should be well within his capabilities. He’s the runner to beat but is likely to go post as the odds-on favourite.

On paper, the biggest danger to Comport (7) is the runner up to him last time Spice Runner (5). He’s a full brother to a top class stakes runner and may take another step forward here. At very worst, he’s very logical to round out a short priced forecast. Shake and Rattle (6) will be a big price.

He never got involved in the stake won by Comport (7). In mitigation, he was parked at the rear in a race dominated by pace horses. Now getting more ground and speed to chase down, he could outrun his odds.

There are a trio in here that have won their only starts to date. Nothing Personal (1) ran the fastest when trouncing a field of maidens at Colonial Downs on debut. He’s ran a speed figure better than anything here besides the favourite who has had three career starts. On the clock, Nine Ball (9) and Vost (8) have a lot more to do. Both won at first asking at Ellis Park. Vost (8) needs to improve more but is very likely to.

He overcame a ton of adversity to score in admittedly a slow time. He’s worked well since that race. His trainer Bill Walden has a fine record with second-time starters. Maybe take him to win with a saver forecast Comport (7) to beat him.

Sometime (2) was placed in a stake on turf second time out. He did break his maiden by ten lengths on debut on dirt.

22:02 Woodbine (Race 8) - Dance To The Music @ SP / Dyna each-way @ SP

The North American trained runners have a far better recent record in this race than males version. That said, Charlie Appleby has a good record when he ships for this. He won this stake in 2018 and 2021.

His unbeaten Dance To The Music (5) is likely to be favourite. She’s won both her career starts either side of an early summer break. In the latest, she scored by a neck in a Group 3 at Newmarket. That’s not stellar form but good enough to go well in this spot. The chances are she comes on for the run and for the step up in distance. Her full brother Space Blues had success in North America winning The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile.

The first three from a local stakes prep for this race reoppose. Corsia Veloce (1) left her debut form behind to cause an upset. There seemed no fluke about it. Sweet Fusion (3) and Dyna (8) had no excuses sat off a fast pace. The trio are place chances. Dyna (8) may have the most improvement stepping up from a mile. She may be worth each-way support.

Deep Learning (10) and Hot Mash (6) both have won their only starts to date. The pair ran big speed figures. Chad Brown’s Deep Learning (10) overcame a slow pace up front to win a maiden at Saratoga by three lengths.

Hot Mash (6) was even more impressive winning by a wide margin in a fast time at Ellis Park. His trainer is a rare visitor to Woodbine. She has to get another three and a half furlongs but there is no questioning her talent.

22:39 Woodbine (Race 9) - Win For The Money each-way @ SP

If Charlie Appleby wins the first two Grade 1’s on the card, his Notable Speech (2) may go off a very skinny price. If not, he’s likely to go off the wrong side of even money as he brings over top form from Europe. In his last start, he was nosed out in The Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville.

That was on soft ground. He did win The Group 1 Sussex Stakes and went close in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile on fast ground last year. His trainer won this race in 2022 and 2023.

Notable Speech (2) ticks all the boxes bar for his price. With no obvious second favourite, it may be biggish prices bar him. Win for the Money (8) finished behind him at The Breeders’ Cup. Before that, he ran a career best when winning this race last year. Third start back after a lay-off, he may be able out up a similar performance. He and stablemate My Boy Prince (6) ran well in a Grade 1 at Saratoga last month.

The last named is dangerous if he makes the lead on his own. In contrast, Gas Me Up (9) would be seen to best effect with speed to chase down. He came from a long way back to beat Wyoming Bill (5) in a Grade 2 over course and distance last month.

Stanley House (1) comes off two fine efforts in local stakes. He gets a class test here. One Stripe (3) is a tougher read but is a two-time Grade 1 winner in South Africa. He makes his North American debut off a lay off since March.

His new trainer Graham Motion has a good record with lay off runners. He is intriguing without knowing what is a fair price to back him at.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...