Saturday Racing Tips: Owen’s ready to Roque on Scottish National day

The highlight on Saturday is of course the Scottish Grand National at Ayr, due off at 15:35. I'm sweet on one in the £200k contest, who forms part of my Saturday racing tips.

There's also a couple on the undercard - including a Nap for the Skeltons - and one on the level at Newbury for the red-hot Gosdens. 

13:10 Ayr - Le Nez Creux @ 11/2

We start at Ayr for a handicap chase over an extended two miles.

LE NEZ CREUX is a fascinating runner for Gavin Cromwell and Robcour that I simply can't ignore.

The five-year-old daughter of No Risk At All changed hands for €320k just 24 hours after the last of eight starts for Francois Nicolle in France, in a Grade 1 over 2m6f at Auteuil in November. She finished fifth of 16 in Paris, 'never in contention' according to the Racing Post race reader.

Previously, over a more familiar trip (2m1½f), she beat subsequent Grade 3 winner Ocre by 12 lengths, no less.

She's got a rating of just 132 in the UK - significantly lower than her Irish one - hence this trip across the Irish Sea on Saturday. She could have a lot in hand.

She'll likely need to, to get the better of an experienced field involving two-time Red Rum winner Sans Bruit, but I'm willing to take the chance at the prices.

14:55 Ayr - Twistthenightaway @ 5/2

Dan Skelton, chasing £5m in prize money for the season, sends a strong team to Ayr on Saturday, including the progressive TWISTTHENIGHTAWAY for this £23k mares' handicap hurdle over an extended three miles.

The six-year-old daughter of Walk In The Park, part-owned by John Magnier of Ballydoyle, showed little in her first three starts over hurdles, earning an opening mark of just 102.

Straight into a handicap at Newcastle at the start of the year off that very mark, up in trip to 2m4½f, she got off the mark - and then followed up off four pounds higher at Bangor the following month, upped again to just shy of three miles.

It was a cosy triumph in North Wales, suggesting there's more in the locker. I don't think a further six-pound rise is enough to stop her going in again.

This is obviously a step up in class, in a field involving the 137-rated World Of Fortunes, but she's on an upwards trajectory and carries a featherweight. She must have a big chance.

15:35 Ayr - Kim Roque @ 5/1

The Irish National was won by the favourite, Soldier In Milan. So too was the big one at Aintree last weekend, with I Am Maximus. On Saturday, the Scottish Grand National can go to another market leader (at time of publication at least) in KIM ROQUE.

Joseph O'Brien's six-year-old is hard to ignore for Ayr's highlight, worth £112k to the winner, despite failing to win in four starts for current connections.

The son of Beaumec De Houelle joined O'Brien's County Kilkenny outfit from France late last year, starting out in a novices' handicap over 2m4f at Cheltenham's November meeting off a mark of 123.

I felt he was coming to win that race before pecking on landing after the last, which halted his momentum and left him in a battle for second. He held on bravely, which was pleasing to see after such a significant mistake.

Off five pounds higher, he returned to HQ - this time on the New Course over half-a-furlong further - and finished fourth after a few problems in running once again. It was a competitive race though, featuring Ultima runner-up Jagwar, so a fine effort in defeat.

Fifty days later, he was fifth of 23 in another big race at Leopardstown before his big target for the season - the Kim Muir.

Things didn't go right for him at the Festival. He was too far back when the field started to get racing, stuck behind a wall of horses, but once seeing daylight he rallied to end up fourth, just eight lengths off the pace. That needs marking up quite significantly as far as I'm concerned.

Now, under J J Slevin for the first time, he comes to Ayr off a mark of 130 (-1). If none the worse for his Cheltenham exploits, he has a huge chance. He's much better off at the weights with the reopposing Road To Home, who's third favourite, and Ask Brewster.

15:45 Newbury - Lighting Thunder @ 5/2

Last but not least, I'm backing LIGHTING THUNDER to strike at Newbury.

John & Thady Gosden's three-year-old Night Of Thunder colt went straight into my tracker after his second at Yarmouth in September last year. I wrote: "Certain winner in waiting. Loads of room improvement. Well-backed before the off. Probable Group class."

He was just touched off by Alan King's 100-rated Spyce, who was unfortunate not to land the £51k Convivial Maiden Stakes at York on his debut a month prior, on the East Coast, clearing the rest of the field by over three lengths. The winner wasn't beaten far in the G3 Zetland Stakes on his next start, behind Betfred Derby hopeful Pierre Bonnard.

It's a smart piece of form and with improvement likely, he ought to prove hard to beat in this with the Gosdens in flying form. Then, perhaps a return to the Knavesmire for the Dante?

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