Nap of the Day: Charlie to keep winning habit on Monday

Welcome to a new week, dear reader. Owen will be with you again shortly but I'm standing in for him today; Monday, March 4th.

There's a seven-race all-weather card at Wolverhampton that has my name written all over it so it's to Dunstall Park we'll travel, for Monday's Nap of the Day.

Tiny bit of shameless blowing of one's own bugle first - three cracking ITV winners on Saturday (4/1, 5/1 and 5/2), and two of my selections sadly didn't go, so it was effectively three from seven, in what were tremendously competitive heats. Most gratifying.

It seems only yesterday that Cheltenham was way off in the distance, but of course it's looming ever-closer now; just over a week and we're off. The curtain will raise with the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, as per, and battle will be joined between all the great and good of National Hunt racing on both sides of the Irish Sea.

We'll be looking of course at all the races in detail, I'll be crafting an each-way Lucky 15 Tuesday-Friday inclusive trying to sniff out a bit of value, Owen's fabulous, forensic expertise will be be harnessed throughout, and we can't wait, frankly.

19.30 Wolverhampton - Artisan Dancer @ 5/2

But in the meantime; for our Nap of the Day I'm looking to Wolverhampton's 19.30, a Class 4 handicap over the staying trip of 1m 6f. My selection is a horse in absolutely cracking order right now, a course-and-distance scorer in the form of his life - and ultra-consistent with it.

Artisan Dancer is a 4-yr-old Mastercraftsman gelding in the hands of Charlie Johnston up on Middleham Moor, in North Yorkshire. Regular recent pilot Jason Hart, who has struck up a fine understanding, is doing the steering. 'Dancer' has never tried anything less than a mile, so connections have always known stamina tests of sorts would be where his future lay.

He gets a good deal further than his illustrious sire but arguably has inherited that teak-tough constitution, and will-to-win. He's won five races all told, but has been placed in the majority of his other starts.

The naughty old handicapper has raised him a couple of pounds for a head-defeat at Southwell nine days ago, in a slightly loftier grade. He has a career-high mark of 83 to defy then on Monday, but I've combed through this race and don't believe it has anything like the depth of the latest Southwell test.

Captain Kane gets a decent pull in the weights for a comfortable 6l defeat at the hands of the selection on this track in early February, and easily rates the danger for me. That was his first run for 153 days, and he's shown ability in this grade. A decent claimer further reduces the burden.

I'm going to have a little reverse forecast on the pair (Captain Kane and Artisan Dancer) just for insurance purposes, but can't help feeling that the Johnstons are happy to strike again while the iron is on the warm side. Our selection travels well, stays, and finds generously at the business end.

Let's hope we can start the week before Cheltenham, if that's a thing (surely it is), with a winner. Dad Mark has been prolific for years, and now son Charlie looks to be flying the Johnston flag quite beautifully (four winners in the last fortnight, too).

As I write this piece late Sunday afternoon, Artisan Dancer is a 5/2 shot. That price can of course fluctuate between now and the off. IF, and only if, you've ever wondered what '5/2' is all about, kindly allow me to elaborate.

Basically, the traders/odds compilers have determined that on known form, and any other circumstances they're taking into account, in their opinion the horse would win this race on two occasions, and lose on five. Easier to think of another example - say, a 2/1 chance. The traders reckon that particular selection would come in once, and lose twice - or to put it another way, a one-in-three chance of winning.

Artisan Dancer therefore at his current price of 5/2 has a two-in-seven chance of success, in their opinion. Two notional wins, five notional losses - that's seven runs in all, and it's expected he'd be successful in two of them.

So - how to express this in a percentage? Two-out-of-seven boils down to two, divided by seven, multiplied by 100 .... which gives us 28.57%, rounded up no doubt to 28.6%. Artisan Dancer's 5/2 price therefore equates to, in the traders' opinion, an implied 28.6% chance of success.

Even money is arguably the easiest to get our heads around - literally a 50/50 chance, or indeed 50%. Lots of handy charts are available to convert fractional prices into decimals, American odds, and indeed these percentages - the implied probability regarding a selection's chances.

You know what - as I'm writing, the horse has been backed in to 2/1. As per the above example, a notional one-in-three probability; or 33.3%. Perhaps it will drift also between now and Monday evening!

All the best, and good luck if you're playing.

Alan.

Nap of the Day, from Betfred Insights.