Lucky 15 Tips: Fergal to flourish at Southwell

Let's take in a summer jumping card from Southwell for Tuesday's Lucky 15 tips. The seven-race action starts at 14:30, and several of the top jocks are in attendance including the champion Sean Bowen.

Horse Racing odds

15:00 - Mr Mahler @ 4/1

2m 4.5f handicap chase, and an eight-year-old gelding looking for his first success after 16 starts.

Mr Mahler ran quite well when visiting here last October, beaten 8.25l, and though evidently a very modest individual what draws me in is the fact that he carries just 10st 5lbs in this, and at his age it's not impossible that there's a performance in him under what look like potentially advantageous conditions.

The likely favourite gives him a stone-and-a-half for example, and he's getting weight from every single one of his opponents. Ran respectably, looking to make all, at Bangor when last seen 17 days ago before weakening on the run-in.

Similar tactics at these weights perhaps today, benefitting fitness-wise from that run? Might just be able to keep his nose in front.

16:00 - Katarcice @ 13/8

Same trip now, but a maiden hurdle. Rather more talent on show, too - and the one I like is Fergal O'Brien's Katarcice.

The six-year-old French-bred gelding is knocking on the door at present and in three spins since kicking off his season in March, all at Huntingdon, he's finished third then second twice in very consistent displays.

He just failed by 1.75l to stop a Skelton conveyance last time 26 days ago and though dangers lurk from the yards of Mickey Bowen, Shark Hanlon and Warren Greatrex among others, the brothers haven't got a representative in this.

Looks like a gilt-edged opportunity, and Jack Hogan is in the plate.

16:30 - Jager Time @ 3/1

A 3m 0.5f handicap hurdle, and we're with the Gloucestershire yard of Fergal O'Brien once again.

He saddles Jager Time here, a seven-year-old gelding by a Juddmonte G1 winner in Canada when trained by the legendary Bobby Frankel. Our pick has won once from 11 starts, and ran well on seasonal reappearance last time at Fontwell 19 days ago, fading late to be beaten 4l.

He races off the same mark of 98, and this isn't a deep one. He looks to have a Team Skelton conveyance to beat and is a far more attractive price than his perceived main rival.

Trainer's daughter Fern, claiming 5lb, has the riding assignment.

17:00 - Squeezebox @ 7/4

Our last leg is a 2m handicap hurdle, and we're with a seven-year-old gelding trained by Tom Lacey in Herefordshire.

Squeezebox is a very creditable five-from-24 all told, and makes his seasonal reappearance this afternoon. Regular recent pilot Stan Sheppard takes the mount, and he's making his hurdling handicap debut today.

Three runs over timber have included a first-time win in a Market Rasen novices' heat and when also last seen in October at Fakenham, in another novice. The assessor has weighed all that evidence and allotted him an opening mark of 111.

Again, this doesn't look a deep affair and our selection prior to his hurdling exploits was a 70-rated performer on the level for Mick Appleby. Has certainly shown an aptitude for his new pursuit and can score again today.

If all four of our selections won, today's notional 50p win Lucky 15, at the prices indicated (they can of course fluctuate), would return around £203 for a £7.50 total stake. If you can improve upon our selections (of course you can) - then go for it!

NAPS table with Betfred Insights.