Lucky 15 Tips: Big day in Wincanton’s season on Saturday

Greetings, dear reader. Have a wonderful Valentines Day! The weather might play a part in Saturday's proceedings (hopefully not, but some precautionary inspections are being lined up). With this in mind I'm inclined to head to Wincanton for our Lucky 15 tips, and their eight-race National Hunt spectacular that kicks in at 12:35.

They too are inspecting; but the vibes, including some feedback from 'local' trainer Paul Nicholls who resides about 20 minutes down the road, are optimistic. It's been a good week for winners and it would be nice to end it with a flourish.

Horse Racing odds

12:35 - At The Oche @ 6/4

Conditional jocks go 2m 5.5f in this Class 5 handicap hurdle.

Team Twiston-Davies field At The Oche, a five-year-old gelding sporting the familiar silks of the Naunton-based patriarch Nigel. Proper family affair then, and from just seven starts this one has scored twice for connections already.

When last seen 25 days ago at Leicester in a slightly higher grade he was an excellent second of 10 beaten just a length, and he's only been raised a pound. It was pretty much a career-best and the forecast heavy ground shouldn't be an issue as those were the conditions prevailing that day in the East Midlands, too.

Tom Broughton is in the plate, second on Thursday aboard a Fergal O'Brien hurdler, and I like this one's chances very much indeed.

13:35 - Rubaud @ 9/4

Paul Nicholls has no peers when it comes to saddling winners at Wincanton. It's only about 10 miles down the road for the Ditcheat handler, and his Rubaud bids to snaffle the £40k+ winner's prize in the G2 Kingwell Hurdle, one of the track's annual highlights.

Alexei for the Tizzards could start favourite, but he faded a touch last time at Ascot after travelling really well and it might be that this testing ground could prove problematic at the business end.

The selection generally operates on better surfaces so it's a slight concern for him too, but at eight years old he's got the maturity and quality to prevail.

Sam Twiston-Davies has the riding assignment, with Harry Cobden otherwise engaged at Ascot, renewing an old association with Paul that preceded the appointment of Harry around eight years ago.

Rubaud last ran behind Sir Gino in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton (beaten 9.5l) and there's nothing of that calibre in this contest.

14:50 - Mutley Crew @ 9/4

This ten-year-old mare is a course-and-distance scorer with three successes from 11 career starts.

Mutley Crew is trained by Robert Walford about 15 miles away so is another local raider. She won here when last seen 16 days ago, importantly on heavy ground, and she's up eight pounds for what was a 7l thrashing; with a further 12l back to the third.

This is tougher but she jumped out of the heavy ground very well and the Walford yard are ticking along very nicely at a 25% strike-rate over the last fortnight. Harry Kimber's on board, the only man to have ridden her on the racetrack, and he's popping along at 27%.

In-form duo, the right ground/track - lots to like.

15:23 - Jack Black @ 9/4

Another handicap chase, this time over the minimum trip.

The selection is Jack Black, a seven-year-old gelding visiting from the Warwickshire base of the Skeltons. No wins yet from seven all-time starts for this one, but after having had three runs now since returning (in October) from a 354-day break he might just be ready to put in a big one.

Last time at Taunton four weeks ago was a career-best, finishing second of seven beaten 5.5l behind a prolific winner of David Pipe's, and Charlie Todd once again has the leg up, with Harry Skelton at Haydock and Tristan Durrell at Ascot.

If all four of our selections won, today's notional 50p win Lucky 15, at the prices indicated (they can of course fluctuate), would return around £140 for a £7.50 total stake. If you can improve upon my selections (of course you can) - then go for it!

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Lucky 15 tips with Betfred Insights.