Lucky 15 Tips: Fine fare from Chelmsford on Thursday evening

With the weather a definite imponderable at the minute a visit to Chelmsford's all-weather circuit for Thursday's Lucky 15 tips looks a solid option.

The Polytrack surface isn't absolutely 100% certain to withstand what nature might throw at us but there's as much chance as anywhere else, fingers crossed.  A competitive-looking seven-race card kicks in at 17:30, plenty of runners are declared as I write, so an each-way play could be just the job.

Horse Racing Odds

17:30 - Evenepoel @ 9/2

We're underway with a 6f maiden, and of most interest to me is a three-year-old gelded son of Aussie-bred sprinter Elzaam - Evenepoel.

Upper Lambourn handler Archie Watson trains, and Arc-winning pilot Luke Morris has the riding assignment. The selection has had just the one outing so far - 22 days ago at Lingfield, where he finished a never-nearer fourth, beaten 1.75l.

That was over 5f and a typically green, slow start didn't help. The penny was dropping nicely towards the business end and on this stiffer track, given the additional furlong, he can get very competitive indeed.

Watson is outstanding, and Morris as powerful in the saddle as any of his peers.

18:30 - Smasher @ 5/1

Another 6f heat; a Class 6 handicap this time.

The selection is Smasher, a six-year-old Dandy Man gelding who is a highly respectable five-from-32 lifetime. On a mark of 54 he's only a pound higher than his last winning spot, and he goes perfectly well here.

William Carson rides and knows the horse, a very consistent performer, well. When last seen 22 days ago he was a fine fifth of 11 at Kempton at the trip beaten 1.75l in a finish of inches, and has a nice berth in the three box.

19:00 - Damzon @ 9/2

Staying handicappers go 1m 5½f , and we're siding with a trainer who's having a good deal of success on the sand, as he invariably does year after year.

Tony Carroll is based in Worcestershire and saddles Damzon in this, with the seven-year-old mare by Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs surprisingly still looking for win number one.

She's become for me at least decently-handicapped, now down to a career-low of 48. Around eighteen months ago she was running off 56, and with Tony only having the horse in his charge for four runs (since early November) he'll be learning about her all the time.

At Wolves 17 days ago at a little further (2m+) she was beaten 5l, running on, and is down a pound this evening. The time before was better, on December 6, same track and trip; being denied by just 1.25l off today's mark of 48.

Every chance in an open contest, and the superb Marco Ghiani is on board (21% strike-rate in the last 14 days).

19:30 - Mumayaz @ 11/2

Our last leg goes in a Class 5 sprint handicap over 5f, for older horses.

The selection is Mumayaz, a seven-year-old Tamayuz gelding, trained by James Owen in Newmarket. Nine wins from 70 starts, and jockey Pat Cosgrave maintains the partnership, having ridden him in each of his last six outings.

The selection is admirably consistent, with 24 placed performances to add to those victories, and he's pretty much as good as he's ever been in his career. I can't find evidence of any previous visits to Chelmsford but what is interesting is the drop down to 5f, given he's usually in recent times deployed over slightly further.

He's won at the trip though in the past and as I mentioned earlier, this is a stiff track where you really need to get home up the punishing straight. He's running off 72 tonight, having won off 69 at Southwell in November.

Funnily enough he's a former inmate at Tony Carroll's, moving to James' yard in October. Smashing little race.

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