ITV Racing Tips: Murphy can shine on fantastic HQ Saturday card

Quick bit of trumpet-blowing. In last week's ITV piece we tipped up five winners from nine selections, at advertised prices of 8/1, 13/8, 12/1, 8/1, and 9/4.  That, as they say, would do very nicely indeed on any day of the week!

As for Saturday's ITV Tips we've got the channel covering the first four on Newmarket's fabulous card - three Group contests and then the small matter of the historic Cambridgeshire Handicap. Meanwhile, two hot Haydock heats are also on the schedule, making for a superb afternoon's sport. Whether you're having a little interest or not, relax and enjoy (one eye too on the golf, perhaps?)

Horse Racing Odds

Full ITV schedule;

13:50 Newmarket - Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) 1m

14:05 Haydock - Handicap Stakes (CL 2) 5f

14:25 Newmarket - Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

15:00 Newmarket - Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

15:15 Haydock - Handicap Stakes (CL 2) 1m

15:40 Newmarket - Cambridgeshire Handicap (CL 2) 1m 1f

Rationale;

13:50 Newmarket - Humidity @ 7/1

HQ's opener is a standout in the two-year-old calendar - the G2 Royal Lodge, over a mile. It's produced some very talented winners down the years, from the likes of St Paddy, Royal Palace, Shirley Heights and Ela-Mana-Mou to contemporary heroes like Roaring Lion and the incomparable Frankel himself.

The 2025 renewal sees for me no obvious, race-at-its-mercy performer. I've plumped for one at what I think is a value price representing connections who are certainly no strangers to success on the biggest stages.

Trainer Andrew Balding is a force to be reckoned with at all times, and he saddles a Ulysses colt out of a Pivotal mare here - Humidity. The selection will be ridden by James Doyle, so often aboard Wathnan Racing's entries in his capacity as retained jockey to the owner.

Four runs so far for this one, and two wins; at Newbury on debut in a May maiden, then next time at Royal Ascot in the Chesham. Two narrow defeats followed - a Goodwood G2 (3.5l behind Zavateri, who's since taken a G1 at the Curragh), and then a thrilling short-head-bobber at Sandown four weeks ago in the G3 Solario.

He's tough, resilient, talented, and versatile as far as ground conditions go. This stiff Rowley Mile should be right up his street and the battling qualities so evident in Esher last time can stand him in good stead in what's a fascinating-looking clash.

14:05 Haydock - Duran @ 9/2

Sprinters go 5f for a good-looking Class 2 handicap on ground likely to have a bit of juice in it.

Our fancy is a course-and-distance scorer running just about as well as ever he has - the four-year-old Invincible Spirit gelding Duran. Nigel Tinkler trains up in Langton, North Yorkshire, and regular pilot Faye McManoman has the riding assignment.

Duran just failed (beaten a neck) when last seen in a similarly warm affair at Donny's Betfred St Leger meeting 13 days ago. The horse gets 6f, which can be a great boon at a stiff track like this, and won't mind any mentions of 'soft' in the going description.

He's up 3lb unfortunately for that fine recent spin but I don't believe that's an insurmountable burden. It's interesting that Nigel doesn't reach out for a claimer to reduce it (Ethan Tindall for example takes 7lb off the back of one of his rivals Vintage Clarets), instead relying on Faye, and her familiarity with her partner.

Fingers crossed that it's an inspired move. The horse is evidently in great heart and has plenty going for him this afternoon.

14:25 Newmarket - Royal Fixation @ 2/1

G1 action now from HQ, with the 6f Cheveley Park for two-year-old fillies.

Another who's-who extravaganza regarding previous winners - the likes of Humble Duty, Marwell, Marling, Alcohol Free, Tiggy Wiggy and last term the super-talented Lake Victoria.

Heading the market as I write is Ed Walker's Palace Pier juvenile Royal Fixation, and she appeals as the most likely winner in my book. Three runs have thus far yielded two wins; a little Thirsk novice on debut in June and then last time in far more rarefied company - the G2 Lowther 37 days ago at York's magnificent Ebor Festival celebration.

The race in-between was a neck defeat, here but on the July course, to Venetian Sun in another G2. That rival has since taken a G1 at Deauville and finished a creditable 2.5l third in another at the Curragh, so the form lines are strong.

Will Buick's been on top the last twice and once again is doing the steering. It's a terrific-looking race and she's got undeniable chances.

15:00 Newmarket - Wise Approach @ 11/10

Three-year-old colts go 6f in the Middle Park, hoping to show they'll be in the conversation regarding the top performers of the year.

I'm placing my faith in the old firm of Charlie Appleby, Will Buick and Godolphin - with the Mehmas youngster Wise Approach. He's two-from-five all told, and is another with form links to Karl Burke's Venetian Sun - finishing a half-length third to that talented filly in the G1 Prix Morny at Deauville when last seen 34 days ago.

On official marks he's got an outstanding chance this afternoon but does face an interesting rival about whom little is known - the once-raced Joseph O'Brien-trained The Publican's Son, who will be ridden by Oisin Murphy.

An eye-catching second at 50/1 in a Curragh G3 four weeks ago is evidence enough of his ability, but has he the experience to take down a Middle Park? It's a scintillating aside in what looks an absolute cracker.

Boys in blue time for me.

15:15 Haydock - Fondo Blanco @ 9/2

Decent Class 2 mile contest, and an absolutely wide-open early betting market.

I'm siding with the Roger Varian-trained Fondo Blanco, a three-year-old colt by Middle Park and July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns. He has one career win from seven starts so far, a York novice last backend, but has shown admirable consistency at three and nicely progressive form, too.

The last twice he's recorded Racing Post Ratings of 95 when failing narrowly to add to his winning tally (two close seconds, first at Southwell in July then 22 days ago at Ascot, both over 7f).

The handicapper has popped him up a couple of pounds from last time, a cruel 'reward' for running so well without quite winning.

He gets a mile for the first time today which his sire tried once (beaten 4.75l in the 2000 Guineas), while on the dam's side there's more of a stamina influence as she was by Lockinge and Champion Stakes winner Farrh. It could well be the key to unlocking some more improvement.

The mighty Brazilian Silvestre de Sousa is doing the pushing (for the first time) and on a stellar afternoon this is yet another very tasty delicacy to look forward to.

15:40 Newmarket - Fort George each-way (6 places) @ 10/1

One of the handicap betting races of the season - the Cambridgeshire, over 1m 1f of Newmarket's Rowley Mile course.

As I write, 24 are scheduled to face the starter, which is a small blessing as I believe the potential upper limit is 35! We're paying six places each-way, so let's take full advantage of that.

My selection is a Fitri Hay-owned three-year-old Territories gelding Fort George. Ed Walker trains, and he's engaged the brilliant Oisin Murphy, who surely would have been in demand for any number of these.

'Murph' was on top last time too, 42 days ago at Newbury, scoring comfortably by 3.5l off a mark of 91. Fort George has been hammered by the assessor and must race off 100 today, but he's improving fast and it's extremely unlikely we've seen anything like the best of him yet.

He gets 10f beautifully so this quirky 9f trip should hold no terrors. Interestingly, he made all last time but seems highly versatile tactics-wise. Oisin is operating at a faintly ridiculous 31% strike-rate over the last 14 days and this could very well be another for the credit column.

ITV Racing Tips from Betfred Insights.