Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends: All you need to know

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Our in-house Horse Racing tipster Owen McMahon has gone through the card for Tuesday's Races and made a selection for every race. Read who he's backing and why with our Cheltenham Day 1 Tips. Add to that former Jockey Katie Walsh has passed on her Cheltenham Tuesday Tips to us here at Betfred.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Odds

If you're planning on getting involved in the opener at Cheltenham, we're running a bet £10, get £10 promotion, where if you opt in daily and place a win or each-way bet of £10 or more on the first race on every day at Cheltenham 2026, you'll get £10 in free bets to use at Cheltenham on the same day.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Key Historical Trends

Age

• Only four horses over the age of seven have won since the race was founded
• 16 of the past 17 winners were aged five or six
• Appreciate It is the only exception outside of that range since 2021
• No four-year-old winner since Hors La Loi (1999)

Runners that match this trend: Old Park Star, Mighty Park, Talk The Talk, El Cairos, Mydaddypaddy, Leader d'Allier, Sober Glory, Baron Noir, Too Bossy For Us, Koktail Brut, Sageborough

Official Rating (OR)

• Nine of the past 12 races have been won by horses with a BHA Rating of 150
• Slade Steel (147), Constitution Hill (148) Labaik (143), Ballyandy (147) exceptions to this
• In past 12 races, a total of 18 horses came to this race with rating of at least 153

Runners that match this trend: Old Park Star, Talk The Talk

Career Runs

• Constitution Hill (2022) most recent winner to have two previous runs over hurdles
• No British-trained winner with less than three runs since Shadow Leader (1997)

Runners that match this trend: Old Park Star, Talk The Talk, El Cairos, Mydaddypaddy, Leader d'Allier, Sober Glory, Baron Noir, Eachtotheirown, Too Bossy For Us, Koktail Brut, Sageborough

Cheltenham Experience

• From the last 34, only six were previous course winners
• Only 10 of the 34 had previously run at the course

Runners that match this trend: Old Star Park, El Cairos

Prep Race

Common prep races:

• Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle
• Future Novices' Hurdle

Runners that ran in these races: Talk The Talk, Koktail Brut

Trainer Trends

• Willie Mullins has won eight Supremes, six of the last 13
• Irish trainers have won nine of the last 13, 16 from 25

Runners that match this trend: Mighty Park, Talk The Talk, Leader d'Allier, Too Bossy For Us, Sageborough

Market Trends

• Nine of last 10 winners were top three in the betting
• 10 winning favourites (or joint-favs) since 1970
• Only five clear favourites have won from the last 26 when starting shorter than 3/1

Runners that match this trend: Old Park Star, Mighty Park, Talk The Talk

Final Shortlist

1. Old Park Star
2. Talk The Talk
3. Leader d'Allier