National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase Betting Trends: Mullins gelding could be way to go

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Our in-house Horse Racing tipster Owen McMahon has gone through the card for Tuesday's Races and made a selection for every race. Read who he's backing and why with our Cheltenham Day 1 Tips. Add to that former Jockey Katie Walsh has passed on her Cheltenham Tuesday Tips to us here at Betfred.

National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase Odds

It's worth noting that a series of significant changes were made to this race in 2024, which had previously been exclusively for amateur riders but is now open to professionals, as well as becoming a novice handicap chase for horses rated 0-145.

National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase Key Historical Trends

Age

• Only two winners have been younger than seven years old
• Only four winners this century have been older than eight

Runners who match this trend: Walking On Air, Kurasso Blue, Pic Roc, Holloway Queen, Will Do

Official Rating (OR)

•  11 of the past 12 winners had a rating of 139 or higher

Runners who match this trend: Wade Out, One Big Bang, King Of Answers, Kurasso Blue, Pic Roc

Cheltenham Experience

• 10 of the past 12 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham

Runners who match this trend: Backmersackme, Newton Tornado, Wade Out, One Big Bang, Walking On Air, Holloway Queen, Pic Roc, Guard The Moon, First Confession, Holokea

Career Runs

• Six of the last 27 winners had yet to win over fences

Runners who match this trend: Backmersackme, Grand Geste, Union Station

Trainer Trends

• Eight of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland
• Gordon Elliott has had four winners in this race since 2011

Runners that match this trend: Backmersackme, Wade Out, Iceberg Theory, Union Station, Kurasso Blue, Will Do

Market Trends

• The favourite has won just twice since 2016 (2023, 2025)
• Just two winners in the last 17 returned a bigger price than 12/1

Runners who match this trend: Backmersackme, Newton Tornado, Wade Out, Iceberg Theory, One Big Bang, Walking On Air, King Of Answers, Kurasso Blue, Grand Geste, Pic Roc

Final Shortlist

1. Backmersackme
2. Wade Out
3. One Big Bang