Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Trends: It’s all about the numbers

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Our in-house Horse Racing tipster Owen McMahon has gone through the card for Wednesday's Races and made a selection for every race. Read who he's backing and why with our Cheltenham Day 2 Tips. Add to that former Jockey Katie Walsh has passed on her Cheltenham Wednesday Tips to us here at Betfred.

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Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Key Historical Trends 

Age 

Look for...

• Seventeen of last 18 winners aged seven or eight

• No winner aged nine since 1992 (Minnehoma)

• Ideal age: Seven - the last five winners have been seven

Runners that match this trend:

• Romeo Coolio
• Final Demand
• Wendigo
• The Big Westerner
• Western Fold
• Argento Boy
• Predators Gold
• Joystick

Official Rating (OR)

• The last 11 winners rated 150+

• Typical winning rating range: 152 –159 (nine of the last 10 winners)

Runners that match this trend:

• Romeo Coolio (158)
• Final Demand (156)
• Western Fold (157)
• Kaid d’Authie (158)
• Koktail Divin (150)
• Kitzbuhel (153)
• Oscars Brother (155)

Last Time Out (LTO) Position 

Look for...

• 46 of last 51 winners finished first or second LTO

List those horses ticking the LTO trend.

• Romeo Coolio
• Kaid d’Auhie
• Koktail Divin
• Wendigo
• The Big Westerner
• Oscars Brother
• Western Fold
• Salver
• Now Is The Hour
• Argento Boy
• Thomas Mor
• Rushmount
• Joystick

Runs Over Fences 

• 30 of last 33 winners had run no more than 5 times over fences

• 28 from last 31 had run at least three times over fences

Runners that match this trend:

• Argento Boy
• Final Demand
• Joystick
• Kaid D’authie
• Kitzbuhel
• Koktail Divin
• Oscars Brother
• Romeo Coolio
• Rushmount
• Salver
• Thomas Mor
• Wendigo 

Career Runs

• Eight of last 10 winners had 6-12 hurdle and chase runs

Runners that match this trend:

• Kaid d’authie
• Oscars Brother
• Western Fold
• Kitzbuhel
• Salver
• Argento Boy
• Thomas Mor
• Rushmount

Cheltenham Experience

• Seven winners had a previous Cheltenham run

Runners that match this trend:

• Romeo Coolio
• Final Demand
• Kaid d’Authie
• Wendigo
• The Big Westerner
• Western Fold
• Salver
• Now Is The Hour
• Argento Boy
• Predators Gold
• Thomas Mor

Prep Race 

Common prep races:

• Novice Chase (Leopardstown) - Kaid d’Authie, Western Fold, FInal Demand
• Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Ascot)
• Kauto Star Novices' Chase (Kempton) - Kitzbuhel, Thomas Mor, Wendigo, Salver

Trainer Trends

Trainers with strong records:

• WIllie Mullins – seven wins, including three of the last five

Willie Mullins’ entries:

• Final Demand
• Kaid d’Authie
• Kitzbuhel
• Argento Boy
• Predators Gold
• Joystick

Market Trends 

• Nine of last 11 winners were top-three in betting

Runners that match this trend:

• Romeo Coolio
• Final Demand
• Kaid d’Authie

Final Shortlist 

Horses matching most trends:

1. Romeo Coolio

2. Final Demand

3. Western Fold