Arkle Novices’ Chase Trends: Six is the magic number

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Our in-house Horse Racing tipster Owen McMahon has gone through the card for Tuesday's Races and made a selection for every race. Read who he's backing and why with our Cheltenham Day 1 Tips. Add to that former Jockey Katie Walsh has passed on her Cheltenham Tuesday Tips to us here at Betfred.

14:00 Arkle Novices' Chase Odds

If you're planning on getting involved in the opener at Cheltenham, we're running a bet £10, get £10 promotion, where if you opt in daily and place a win or each-way bet of £10 or more on the first race on every day at Cheltenham 2026, you'll get £10 in free bets to use at Cheltenham on the same day.

Arkle Novices' Chase Key Historical Trends

Age

• Eight-year-old Edwardstone (2022) is the only winner in the last 15 years not aged either six or seven
• Six of the last 10 winners, including the last three, have been six years old
• Five year olds are 0-17 since 2006
• There has been no nine-year-old winner since Danish Flight in 1988
• Ideal age: six

Runners that match this trend: Kopek Des Bordes, Karges

Official Rating (OR)

• 16 of the last 18 races have been won by horses with a BHA rating of at least 151 over fences
• 17 of the last 19 were rated 142+ over hurdles
• Typical winning rating range: 151-162

Runners that match this trend: Steel Ally, Kopek Des Bordes

Career Runs

• 16 from the last 21 had three or four chase runs, four others were unbeaten when completing
• All bar Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie of the last 16 won last time out
• In the last 28 renewals, 22 Arkle winners had won last-time out

Runners that match this trend: Kopek Des Bordes, Lulamba, Steel Ally, Jax Junior

Trainer Trends

• Nicky Henderson has run 11 with a hurdle rating of 145+
• Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 14
• Nicky Henderson is the most successful trainer in this race with eight victories

Runners that match this trend: Kopek Des Bordes, Lulamba, Kargese

Market Trends

• Only one winner this century wasn't favourite or second favourite on the previous run
• 10 of the last 14 favourites have won (seven at odds on)

Runners that match this trend: Kopek Des Bordes, Lulamba, Kargese

Final Shortlist

1. Kopek Des Bordes
2. Kargese
3. Lulamba