Cheltenham November Meeting Friday Tips: Winter is coming…

... literally! The nights are darker, the heating's on (reluctantly) and it's raining 24/7 again. Over 30mm is due at Cheltenham on Friday for the opening day of the November Meeting, so expect soft ground at best.

With that in mind, here's my Cheltenham November Meeting Friday tips - including an aptly-named handicap debutant I believe to be off an extremely handy mark.

13:10 - As Legends Have It each-way @ 10/1

Ben Pauling is operating at an impressive 32% strike rate in the past fortnight, which bodes well for his runner in the opener - AS LEGENDS HAVE IT.

The six-year-old son of Jack Hobbs is a lightly-raced gelding with just six starts under rules to his name, and we're yet to see the best of him according to his trainer.

In a stable tour with AtTheRaces, Pauling said: "He is a nice little horse and he didn’t get the chance to show what he is made of. He was supposed to run in the EBF Final but missed out by one. He then pulled some muscle behind but is probably the right side of the handicapper."

His return to action following a 264-day break at Uttoxeter a couple of weeks ago was encouraging, and he ought to come on plenty for the experience. The assistance of first-time cheekpieces can bring about improvement too.

A mark of 113 - the talented Callum Pritchard claims three pounds - could easily underestimate this horse, who boasts some nice pieces of form behind the likes of George's Lad (rated 128), Califet En Vol (137) and Shade Of Winter. More on that one later...

I think the selection is overpriced ahead of this conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle over 2m5f and with Betfred paying five places, he rates a cracking each-way bet.

14:20 - Double Powerful @ 4/1

I'm a big fan of DOUBLE POWERFUL. Just over a year-and-a-half ago, Neil Mulholland's six-year-old was rated just 76 and had form figures of 7P794. Since then, it's 1111112333 and his handicap mark has gone up an astonishing 60lbs in total. Sixty pounds.

Even his defeats have worked out well. East India Express is rated 14lbs higher today, while Aston Martini was a 10-length Listed winner over in France on her next start - and Deep Cave beat The Doyen Chief on chasing debut at Bangor on Wednesday.

It's too early to assess the strength of the selection's third on his first try over fences at Cheltenham's Showcase Meeting, but he showed a liking for jumping the bigger obstacles and caught the eye in finishing strongly from out the back of the field.

He was a big drifter that day and seems to want more emphasis on stamina, so I'm expecting a good bit of improvement to come as he steps back up to 3m1f.

I think he's more than capable of taking a Listed prize like this, especially with questions about his main rivals - for example, was Wade Out flattered by beating an undercooked Wendigo? How strong is the form of Leave Of Absence's course-and-distance victory last month? One Big Bang and Isaac Des Obeaux have it all to do on seasonal reappearance.

As far as I'm concerned, Double Powerful has as good a chance as any of his rivals at HQ on Saturday, yet the market suggests otherwise. He's a lovely price.

16:00 - Shade Of Winter @ 15/2

The last time Alphonse Le Grande ran over hurdles, he finished eight-and-a-quarter-lengths down the field in a handicap at Ludlow. In the two years since, he's developed into a smart stayer on the flat, winning the 2024 Cesarewitch and reaching a mark of 93.

If Tony Martin's six-year-old can translate that improved form over timber, he could make a mockery of his mark (98) in this novices' handicap over 2m5f. That's guesswork, though.

What isn't guesswork, at least in my opinion, is the case for SHADE OF WINTER.

Evan Williams' five-year-old son of Affinisea improved immensely for his debut over timber at Chepstow around this time last year, going on to finish runner-up to Julius Des Pictons on his next outing in a Class 3 at Chepstow over Christmas.

Jamie Snowden's two-length winner, rated 123 already, subsequently landed the G1 Sefton Novices' Hurdle at Aintree's Grand National meeting, giving the form a major boost. The third-placed Clap Of Thunder (120) is no mug either.

On that run - and to a slightly lesser extent his second to Royal Rambler (127) who split a couple of nice types at Uttoxeter next time out - he rates a very well-handicapped individual.

He'll also relish the likely conditions and Harry Cobden, who I suspect will do what he does best and try to make all, has been booked to ride. I'm looking forward to this one.

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