Cheltenham 2025: Owen states his Champion Hurdle claim

A visit to Willie Mullins' yard and the weekend's results has led me to tackle the much-discussed Champion Hurdle market for my antepost tip on Week 7 of our journey to Cheltenham 2025.

I thought there was a bit of an overreaction to Lossiemouth's victory in the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse on Sunday.

Don't get me wrong, Willie Mullins' mare is an exceptional talent. She's already a winner of five Grade 1s, two of those coming at the Cheltenham Festival, and bar that unfortunate defeat as a juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival in February last year, she's yet to even be troubled in a race.

It's impossible not to be impressed by the manner in which she beat the hat-trick-seeking Teahupoo, but I must admit it's pretty much exactly what I expected. They were always likely to dawdle round the County Meath venue and when it turned into a sprint on quick ground, the Champion Hurdle hopeful was supposed to ease past the Stayers' Hurdle hero who has long been regarded as something of a mudlark.

I'm not sure we learned much. The five-year-old no doubt has lots of improvement still to come, but her new price of 7/4 is very much on the short side as far as I'm concerned.

Champion Hurdle Odds

Especially as she's not a guaranteed runner. It sure looks the target right now, but there's a lot that can happen between now and March and Mullins continues to stress it's the plan "at the moment" while refusing to rule out a defence of her Mares' Hurdle crown.

Sir Gino is another who put his name into the hat for the Champion Hurdle at the weekend, cruising to an eight-length victory in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on Saturday.

I've of course tipped Nicky Henderson's four-year-old for the Arkle so perhaps this is wishful thinking, but there must be every chance he still goes chasing. He was a stand-in for Constitution Hill in the North East and Henderson continues to leave that door open - and there's been money for it over the last 24 hours or so.

The case for him changing tack is helped further by the emergence of Anzadam, who on top of Sir Gino and reigning champion State Man - more on him in a moment - would be the Donnelly's third contender for the big race. Mullins' four-year-old hacked up in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse on Saturday on just his third-ever start and has been subject of rave reviews from his trainer over the last few days.

Then of course we have the mercurial Constitution Hill. If he was guaranteed to turn up at 100 per cent, he'd wipe the floor with the lot of them, but there must be serious doubts about his well-being. First it was a bad scope, then the infamous Kempton gallop, a bout of Colic and most recently another underwhelming gallop followed by confirmation of a setback. Until proven otherwise, I think it's best to treat him as a non-runner.

The definite contender, all being well, is the aforementioned STATE MAN, who Betfred have pushed to an industry-best 9/2 after the weekend. I think that's great value.

I was lucky enough to meet the 10-time Grade 1 hero (pictured below) at Closutton last Friday, and I must admit I was really taken by him. He looked fantastic.

I understand there's high hopes about him reversing the Morgiana form with Brighterdaysahead come the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. I'd be quite confident about that eventuality.

He completely blew up after heading the race-fit mare on the approach to the final flight, which is no surprise as he was carrying plenty of condition. He'll feel the benefits of that run in just over three weeks' time.

Barring a disaster, it'll be onto the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival afterwards, before a bid to go back-to-back in the big one at Cheltenham and record his third Festival win.

The case for State Man doesn't rely on Lossiemouth not turning up, either. His form is, at this stage, superior to hers and I don't buy into the idea that Paul Townend would definitely ride the mare if the pair do meet in the spring.

Paul has partnered State Man, who he absolutely adores, a total of 14 times, picking up over £1million in prize money, and don't forget he is the reigning champ. If he looks back to his brilliant best in his next two starts, I'd say he'll find it hard to get off him.

That goes out of the window if Lossiemouth heads to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day, as has been suggested, and downs Constitution Hill. His decision would be made in that instance, but I can't see that clash happening unless the latter is in absolutely tip-top shape, which seems unlikely given it's already been billed as a race against time.

My suggestion is to back State Man now. If everything goes to plan and the race indeed cuts up like I expect - it's nice to dream but does anyone really think we'll get State Man vs Lossiemouth vs Sir Gino vs Constitution Hill? - he certainly won't be any bigger.

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