Cheltenham 2025: It’s time to strike on 9/1 Henderson star

It's Week 2 on the road to Cheltenham 2025 and Owen McMahon has another antepost selection for the Festival - one he anticipates could shorten significantly over the coming days.

Until very recently, all indications were that SIR GINO was set for another season over hurdles.

In multiple stable tours published just last week, Nicky Henderson all but confirmed it - but there's since been hints about a change of heart.

Following support for the four-year-old in the Arkle betting on Thursday, and drifts in the Champion Hurdle market, Henderson told Sporting Life: "Everybody told me that there had been money for Sir Gino going over fences, but I haven't ruled it in and I haven't ruled it out.

"We've just got to see how everything pans out. Don't forget Joe [Donnelly, owner] owns State Man as well. We are keeping all the balls in the air."

That's got to be significant, considering just days before he said "we are hoping he is going to make into a true Grade 1 hurdler" in a stable tour with AtTheRaces.

Reading between the lines, I wonder if Constitution Hill has been showing signs he's back to his brilliant best at home? Or perhaps Sir Gino has popped a couple of fences and impressed himself. Maybe, as Henderson alluded to, the Donnellys want to split him and State Man up.

On the morning I write this, Constitution Hill is heading to Newbury for a racecourse gallop. I suspect the outcome of that will have a say on the route Sir Gino takes this season. Just a guess.

I hope his immediate future does lie over fences, for I fancy he could be the next superstar two-miler out of Seven Barrows.

Everything suggests he's destined to dine at the top table. His winning debut in France, when he beat Salvator Mundi (12/1 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle) rather cosily, was the first sign, and his 14-length trouncing of Royal Way (rated 124 and ran with credit in the Masterson Holdings Hurdle at Cheltenham last weekend) has more depth to it than initially thought.

Perhaps his most impressive piece of form, despite being a Grade 1 winner, is his 10-length beating of Burdett Road in the Triumph Trial at HQ back in January.

His winning time (4m 13.06s) was quicker than the one subsequent Mares' Hurdle heroine Lossiemouth, who's 10/3 for this year's Champion Hurdle, clocked in the International Hurdle (4m 14.87s) she won by nearly 10 lengths herself on the same card.

Sir Gino didn't run at the Festival due to Henderson's yard being under a cloud at the time, but he picked up from where he left off by beating Kargese, who was runner-up in the Triumph, in a Grade 1 at Aintree's Grand National meeting a month later.

He did it easily in the end and she franked the form by winning her second Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival in May, so it's fair to say there's few, if any holes to poke at in the selection's formbook.

So, assuming he does go chasing, why should you back Sir Gino for the Arkle at 9/1?

Arkle Challenge Trophy Antepost Odds

There must be a very high chance he gets to Prestbury Park in March with his unblemished record in tact.

In receipt of the valuable four-year-old allowance for the remainder of the calendar year, he's going to be extremely hard to beat on these shores in what I presume, all being well, would be two starts - a beginners' chase before either the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown or the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton over Christmas.

Even without the allowance, I'd strongly fancy that to be the case, for the British competition in this division looks very weak. It's for that reason I don't envisage whatever his third and probably final appearance before Cheltenham would be in the new year, no longer in receipt of weight, going any differently.

Something you may see put forward as a problem for this selection is the record of five-year-olds in the Arkle. There hasn't been a single five-year-old winner since the the weight-for-age allowance was removed ahead of the 2008 season.

I'm not saying that's entirely coincidental, but it's important to add some context to the figures.

In the 17 renewals during that time, only 11 five-year-olds have competed in the race. One fell and another unseated, so only nine actually completed. Of those, two finished runner-up and one was third at 80/1.

Of the remaining six, it was only Riviere D'etel, Allmankind and Saint Calvados that were somewhat fancied. Have we not since learned of their limitations, rather than it being a case that it came too soon in their careers? I wouldn't let it put you off.

The penultimate thing to mention is the Ballyburn factor. He was comfortably last season's best novice hurdler and if he goes down this route, he's going to be hard to beat. However, he also has the option of the Brown Advisory.

Even so, if Sir Gino cleans up on this side of the Irish Sea, there's likely to be plenty of intrigue surrounding that particular clash come those four days in March.

Of course, it could at anytime be confirmed (again) that he stays hurdling and this our tickets go straight into the bin, but antepost betting is for taking risks and this is one that could pay off handsomely as this highly-competitive 9/1 will be long gone if the alternative comes to fruition.

Find more Cheltenham Tips here at Betfred Insights